**Anthropic's Claude lineup, including the July 2026 release of Opus 5 and variants such as Mythos 5 and Fable 5, currently tops multiple HLE leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% under tool-augmented and adaptive-reasoning conditions.** These results reflect iterative gains from enhanced reasoning scaffolds, tool integration, and larger context handling on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning expert-level math, science, and humanities. The models maintain a narrow lead over OpenAI GPT-5 configurations and Meta's Muse Spark, with top scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s across evaluations that emphasize verifiable reasoning over retrieval. With roughly four months remaining in 2026, further model updates or refined inference techniques could push the frontier higher, though benchmark saturation risks and evaluation-condition differences introduce uncertainty around thresholds above 65%. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely, as each new Claude release has demonstrably lifted the highest reported scores.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$70,168 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
87%
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62%
65%+
20%
70%+
9%
75%+
6%
$70,168 Vol.
55%+
$16,296 Vol.
87%
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$31,258 Vol.
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65%+
$18,681 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic's Claude lineup, including the July 2026 release of Opus 5 and variants such as Mythos 5 and Fable 5, currently tops multiple HLE leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% under tool-augmented and adaptive-reasoning conditions.** These results reflect iterative gains from enhanced reasoning scaffolds, tool integration, and larger context handling on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning expert-level math, science, and humanities. The models maintain a narrow lead over OpenAI GPT-5 configurations and Meta's Muse Spark, with top scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s across evaluations that emphasize verifiable reasoning over retrieval. With roughly four months remaining in 2026, further model updates or refined inference techniques could push the frontier higher, though benchmark saturation risks and evaluation-condition differences introduce uncertainty around thresholds above 65%. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely, as each new Claude release has demonstrably lifted the highest reported scores.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$70,168End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic's Claude lineup, including the July 2026 release of Opus 5 and variants such as Mythos 5 and Fable 5, currently tops multiple HLE leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% under tool-augmented and adaptive-reasoning conditions.** These results reflect iterative gains from enhanced reasoning scaffolds, tool integration, and larger context handling on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning expert-level math, science, and humanities. The models maintain a narrow lead over OpenAI GPT-5 configurations and Meta's Muse Spark, with top scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s across evaluations that emphasize verifiable reasoning over retrieval. With roughly four months remaining in 2026, further model updates or refined inference techniques could push the frontier higher, though benchmark saturation risks and evaluation-condition differences introduce uncertainty around thresholds above 65%. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely, as each new Claude release has demonstrably lifted the highest reported scores.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$70,168End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Anthropic's Claude lineup, including the July 2026 release of Opus 5 and variants such as Mythos 5 and Fable 5, currently tops multiple HLE leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% under tool-augmented and adaptive-reasoning conditions.** These results reflect iterative gains from enhanced reasoning scaffolds, tool integration, and larger context handling on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning expert-level math, science, and humanities. The models maintain a narrow lead over OpenAI GPT-5 configurations and Meta's Muse Spark, with top scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s across evaluations that emphasize verifiable reasoning over retrieval. With roughly four months remaining in 2026, further model updates or refined inference techniques could push the frontier higher, though benchmark saturation risks and evaluation-condition differences introduce uncertainty around thresholds above 65%. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely, as each new Claude release has demonstrably lifted the highest reported scores.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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