Traders see claude-opus-5-high and claude-opus-5-max as the frontrunners because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking by default plus five effort levels that let users trade tokens and latency for stronger results on agentic coding, Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and AutomationBench. The high setting delivers most of the gains at lower cost, while max effort unlocks the top scores on the hardest tasks, creating a tight split in implied odds. Opus 4.6-high trails sharply on the same evaluations, and “Other” captures Mythos-class or rival models that still lead only on narrow cybersecurity or unrestricted frontiers. With no new releases in the final week of August, sentiment hinges on these tunable performance-cost trade-offs ahead of the August 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-high 40.3%
claude-opus-5-max 32%
Other 21.1%
claude-opus-4-6-high 2.1%
$40,486 Vol.
$40,486 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
40%
claude-opus-5-max
32%
Other
21%
claude-opus-4-6-high
2%
claude-opus-5-high 40.3%
claude-opus-5-max 32%
Other 21.1%
claude-opus-4-6-high 2.1%
$40,486 Vol.
$40,486 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
$9,846 Vol.
40%
claude-opus-5-max
$14,610 Vol.
32%
Other
$7,550 Vol.
21%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$8,480 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see claude-opus-5-high and claude-opus-5-max as the frontrunners because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking by default plus five effort levels that let users trade tokens and latency for stronger results on agentic coding, Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and AutomationBench. The high setting delivers most of the gains at lower cost, while max effort unlocks the top scores on the hardest tasks, creating a tight split in implied odds. Opus 4.6-high trails sharply on the same evaluations, and “Other” captures Mythos-class or rival models that still lead only on narrow cybersecurity or unrestricted frontiers. With no new releases in the final week of August, sentiment hinges on these tunable performance-cost trade-offs ahead of the August 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$40,486End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see claude-opus-5-high and claude-opus-5-max as the frontrunners because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking by default plus five effort levels that let users trade tokens and latency for stronger results on agentic coding, Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and AutomationBench. The high setting delivers most of the gains at lower cost, while max effort unlocks the top scores on the hardest tasks, creating a tight split in implied odds. Opus 4.6-high trails sharply on the same evaluations, and “Other” captures Mythos-class or rival models that still lead only on narrow cybersecurity or unrestricted frontiers. With no new releases in the final week of August, sentiment hinges on these tunable performance-cost trade-offs ahead of the August 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40,486End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see claude-opus-5-high and claude-opus-5-max as the frontrunners because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking by default plus five effort levels that let users trade tokens and latency for stronger results on agentic coding, Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and AutomationBench. The high setting delivers most of the gains at lower cost, while max effort unlocks the top scores on the hardest tasks, creating a tight split in implied odds. Opus 4.6-high trails sharply on the same evaluations, and “Other” captures Mythos-class or rival models that still lead only on narrow cybersecurity or unrestricted frontiers. With no new releases in the final week of August, sentiment hinges on these tunable performance-cost trade-offs ahead of the August 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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