Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release on August 13, combined with Gemini Robotics 2 demonstrations and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis to Alphabet Chief Scientist alongside Koray Kavukcuoglu’s Gemini oversight, has driven trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability for second place. These updates delivered measurable gains in agentic coding speed and multimodal benchmarks while leveraging Google’s TPU infrastructure and consumer distribution scale, outpacing peers’ late-August activity. Frontier leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic remain priced below 1% due to their established top-tier positioning, leaving Google as the consensus runner-up absent major new catalysts before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 88%
Meta 4.8%
Alibaba 1.6%
OpenAI <1%
$173,086 Vol.
$173,086 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
88%
Meta
5%
Alibaba
2%
OpenAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meituan
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Thinky
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Google 88%
Meta 4.8%
Alibaba 1.6%
OpenAI <1%
$173,086 Vol.
$173,086 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
$27,313 Vol.
88%
Meta
$14,895 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$31,691 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$8,647 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$8,066 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$7,792 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$5,730 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$8,266 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$5,319 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$8,140 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$8,722 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$9,270 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$7,812 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,764 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$4,898 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,899 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$1,048 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$2,172 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,248 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,035 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release on August 13, combined with Gemini Robotics 2 demonstrations and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis to Alphabet Chief Scientist alongside Koray Kavukcuoglu’s Gemini oversight, has driven trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability for second place. These updates delivered measurable gains in agentic coding speed and multimodal benchmarks while leveraging Google’s TPU infrastructure and consumer distribution scale, outpacing peers’ late-August activity. Frontier leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic remain priced below 1% due to their established top-tier positioning, leaving Google as the consensus runner-up absent major new catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Volume
$173,086End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release on August 13, combined with Gemini Robotics 2 demonstrations and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis to Alphabet Chief Scientist alongside Koray Kavukcuoglu’s Gemini oversight, has driven trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability for second place. These updates delivered measurable gains in agentic coding speed and multimodal benchmarks while leveraging Google’s TPU infrastructure and consumer distribution scale, outpacing peers’ late-August activity. Frontier leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic remain priced below 1% due to their established top-tier positioning, leaving Google as the consensus runner-up absent major new catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$173,086End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release on August 13, combined with Gemini Robotics 2 demonstrations and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis to Alphabet Chief Scientist alongside Koray Kavukcuoglu’s Gemini oversight, has driven trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability for second place. These updates delivered measurable gains in agentic coding speed and multimodal benchmarks while leveraging Google’s TPU infrastructure and consumer distribution scale, outpacing peers’ late-August activity. Frontier leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic remain priced below 1% due to their established top-tier positioning, leaving Google as the consensus runner-up absent major new catalysts before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions