Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 24 release of Opus 5, drives the 69% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks on intelligence, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks as of late August 2026. Strong enterprise adoption, with run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion and over 1,000 large customers, plus heavy internal use for production code, reinforces trader consensus on sustained leadership through year-end. Rivals including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s iterative Gemini 3.x releases, and xAI’s recent Grok 4.6 have narrowed gaps on speed and price but trail on composite capability metrics. With only months remaining, recent model refreshes and benchmark consistency position Anthropic as the clear frontrunner in aggregated trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
Google 10%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 8.4%
$818,028 Vol.
$818,028 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
69%
10%
OpenAI
10%
xAI
8%
Meta
3%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 69%
Google 10%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 8.4%
$818,028 Vol.
$818,028 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
$86,404 Vol.
69%
$42,336 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$66,371 Vol.
10%
xAI
$67,989 Vol.
8%
Meta
$52,805 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$66,249 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$54,794 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$64,129 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$47,920 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$59,571 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$38,183 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$48,181 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$42,584 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$39,350 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$41,163 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 24 release of Opus 5, drives the 69% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks on intelligence, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks as of late August 2026. Strong enterprise adoption, with run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion and over 1,000 large customers, plus heavy internal use for production code, reinforces trader consensus on sustained leadership through year-end. Rivals including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s iterative Gemini 3.x releases, and xAI’s recent Grok 4.6 have narrowed gaps on speed and price but trail on composite capability metrics. With only months remaining, recent model refreshes and benchmark consistency position Anthropic as the clear frontrunner in aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$818,028End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 24 release of Opus 5, drives the 69% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks on intelligence, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks as of late August 2026. Strong enterprise adoption, with run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion and over 1,000 large customers, plus heavy internal use for production code, reinforces trader consensus on sustained leadership through year-end. Rivals including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s iterative Gemini 3.x releases, and xAI’s recent Grok 4.6 have narrowed gaps on speed and price but trail on composite capability metrics. With only months remaining, recent model refreshes and benchmark consistency position Anthropic as the clear frontrunner in aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$818,028End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 24 release of Opus 5, drives the 69% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks on intelligence, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks as of late August 2026. Strong enterprise adoption, with run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion and over 1,000 large customers, plus heavy internal use for production code, reinforces trader consensus on sustained leadership through year-end. Rivals including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s iterative Gemini 3.x releases, and xAI’s recent Grok 4.6 have narrowed gaps on speed and price but trail on composite capability metrics. With only months remaining, recent model refreshes and benchmark consistency position Anthropic as the clear frontrunner in aggregated trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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