Anthropic's recent model releases, including Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 85.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 (83.26 score), SWE-bench Verified (up to 96%), and agentic evaluations like ARC-AGI 3 and Frontier-Bench as of late August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in coding, long-horizon reasoning, and tool use compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.04) or other rivals, reflecting Anthropic's edge in frontier capabilities and cost-efficient deployments. Low probabilities for competitors like Google, Meta, and xAI align with current leaderboard gaps, though the two-month window to October resolution leaves room for new releases or benchmark shifts to alter trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
OpenAI 6.1%
Google 5.3%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$51,088 Vol.
$51,088 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
6%
5%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 6.1%
Google 5.3%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$51,088 Vol.
$51,088 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$10,428 Vol.
86%
OpenAI
$2,499 Vol.
6%
$2,866 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$2,809 Vol.
2%
Meta
$2,808 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$4,713 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,957 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,042 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,925 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,812 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$2,453 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$1,811 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$2,358 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$2,335 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent model releases, including Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 85.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 (83.26 score), SWE-bench Verified (up to 96%), and agentic evaluations like ARC-AGI 3 and Frontier-Bench as of late August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in coding, long-horizon reasoning, and tool use compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.04) or other rivals, reflecting Anthropic's edge in frontier capabilities and cost-efficient deployments. Low probabilities for competitors like Google, Meta, and xAI align with current leaderboard gaps, though the two-month window to October resolution leaves room for new releases or benchmark shifts to alter trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$51,088End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent model releases, including Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 85.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 (83.26 score), SWE-bench Verified (up to 96%), and agentic evaluations like ARC-AGI 3 and Frontier-Bench as of late August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in coding, long-horizon reasoning, and tool use compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.04) or other rivals, reflecting Anthropic's edge in frontier capabilities and cost-efficient deployments. Low probabilities for competitors like Google, Meta, and xAI align with current leaderboard gaps, though the two-month window to October resolution leaves room for new releases or benchmark shifts to alter trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$51,088End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent model releases, including Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 85.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 (83.26 score), SWE-bench Verified (up to 96%), and agentic evaluations like ARC-AGI 3 and Frontier-Bench as of late August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in coding, long-horizon reasoning, and tool use compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.04) or other rivals, reflecting Anthropic's edge in frontier capabilities and cost-efficient deployments. Low probabilities for competitors like Google, Meta, and xAI align with current leaderboard gaps, though the two-month window to October resolution leaves room for new releases or benchmark shifts to alter trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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