Anthropic's Claude models, including claude-fable-5 and multiple Opus 4 variants, currently dominate the Text Arena Math leaderboard on arena.ai through strong human preference votes on competition-level reasoning tasks, driving the 79.5% market-implied probability. Recent August 2026 demonstrations of an unreleased Claude advancing bounds on the Riemann hypothesis via multi-agent workflows underscore the company's edge in extended mathematical reasoning. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 series trail in direct arena comparisons despite solid benchmark scores, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese providers lag further behind on the same metrics. With two months until resolution, any major new releases or leaderboard shifts could still influence outcomes, though Anthropic's consistent positioning reflects trader confidence in its current capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 80%
OpenAI 11%
Google 4.5%
Tencent 1.8%
$15,397 Vol.
$15,397 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
80%
OpenAI
11%
5%
Tencent
2%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meituan
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Anthropic 80%
OpenAI 11%
Google 4.5%
Tencent 1.8%
$15,397 Vol.
$15,397 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,277 Vol.
80%
OpenAI
$2,779 Vol.
11%
$370 Vol.
5%
Tencent
$392 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$333 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$325 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$359 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$337 Vol.
1%
Meta
$326 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$344 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$411 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$389 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$326 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$338 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$361 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$426 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$356 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$325 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$301 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$322 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, including claude-fable-5 and multiple Opus 4 variants, currently dominate the Text Arena Math leaderboard on arena.ai through strong human preference votes on competition-level reasoning tasks, driving the 79.5% market-implied probability. Recent August 2026 demonstrations of an unreleased Claude advancing bounds on the Riemann hypothesis via multi-agent workflows underscore the company's edge in extended mathematical reasoning. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 series trail in direct arena comparisons despite solid benchmark scores, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese providers lag further behind on the same metrics. With two months until resolution, any major new releases or leaderboard shifts could still influence outcomes, though Anthropic's consistent positioning reflects trader confidence in its current capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$15,397End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, including claude-fable-5 and multiple Opus 4 variants, currently dominate the Text Arena Math leaderboard on arena.ai through strong human preference votes on competition-level reasoning tasks, driving the 79.5% market-implied probability. Recent August 2026 demonstrations of an unreleased Claude advancing bounds on the Riemann hypothesis via multi-agent workflows underscore the company's edge in extended mathematical reasoning. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 series trail in direct arena comparisons despite solid benchmark scores, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese providers lag further behind on the same metrics. With two months until resolution, any major new releases or leaderboard shifts could still influence outcomes, though Anthropic's consistent positioning reflects trader confidence in its current capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$15,397End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude models, including claude-fable-5 and multiple Opus 4 variants, currently dominate the Text Arena Math leaderboard on arena.ai through strong human preference votes on competition-level reasoning tasks, driving the 79.5% market-implied probability. Recent August 2026 demonstrations of an unreleased Claude advancing bounds on the Riemann hypothesis via multi-agent workflows underscore the company's edge in extended mathematical reasoning. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 series trail in direct arena comparisons despite solid benchmark scores, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese providers lag further behind on the same metrics. With two months until resolution, any major new releases or leaderboard shifts could still influence outcomes, though Anthropic's consistent positioning reflects trader confidence in its current capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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