Anthropic's commanding 91% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus around its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in mathematical reasoning and problem-solving benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena. Recent model iterations have shown consistent gains in complex math tasks, outpacing rivals in accuracy and step-by-step logic under real-world evaluation conditions. This positioning draws from Anthropic's focused AI safety approach and iterative releases that prioritize verifiable capability improvements over broader hype. A late-September surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab delivering a superior math-specific update could still shift outcomes, though the compressed timeline to resolution limits the window for such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 8%
Google 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
$35,551 Vol.
$35,551 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
8%
2%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 8%
Google 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
$35,551 Vol.
$35,551 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$9,392 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$11,166 Vol.
8%
$3,176 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$1,475 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$469 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 91% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus around its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in mathematical reasoning and problem-solving benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena. Recent model iterations have shown consistent gains in complex math tasks, outpacing rivals in accuracy and step-by-step logic under real-world evaluation conditions. This positioning draws from Anthropic's focused AI safety approach and iterative releases that prioritize verifiable capability improvements over broader hype. A late-September surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab delivering a superior math-specific update could still shift outcomes, though the compressed timeline to resolution limits the window for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$35,551End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 91% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus around its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in mathematical reasoning and problem-solving benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena. Recent model iterations have shown consistent gains in complex math tasks, outpacing rivals in accuracy and step-by-step logic under real-world evaluation conditions. This positioning draws from Anthropic's focused AI safety approach and iterative releases that prioritize verifiable capability improvements over broader hype. A late-September surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab delivering a superior math-specific update could still shift outcomes, though the compressed timeline to resolution limits the window for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$35,551End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's commanding 91% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus around its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in mathematical reasoning and problem-solving benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena. Recent model iterations have shown consistent gains in complex math tasks, outpacing rivals in accuracy and step-by-step logic under real-world evaluation conditions. This positioning draws from Anthropic's focused AI safety approach and iterative releases that prioritize verifiable capability improvements over broader hype. A late-September surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab delivering a superior math-specific update could still shift outcomes, though the compressed timeline to resolution limits the window for such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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