Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with composite scores of 83–97, driven by superior results on agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Verified, long-context reasoning, and tool-use evaluations as of late August 2026. These models, released or updated earlier in the year with 1M-token windows and adaptive thinking, have maintained the top positions across coding, reasoning, and overall capability metrics while competitors including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini trail by measurable margins. The market’s 98.3% implied probability for Anthropic reflects this sustained benchmark dominance and recent stability in frontier rankings. A late-month surprise release or major evaluation shift from another lab could still alter the outcome before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 98.6%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
Moonshot <1%
$30,712 Vol.
$30,712 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
99%
Meta
1%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 98.6%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
Moonshot <1%
$30,712 Vol.
$30,712 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$8,847 Vol.
99%
Meta
$1,540 Vol.
1%
$2,295 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,688 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$3,198 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,168 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,110 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$685 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$985 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$719 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,329 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$609 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$738 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with composite scores of 83–97, driven by superior results on agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Verified, long-context reasoning, and tool-use evaluations as of late August 2026. These models, released or updated earlier in the year with 1M-token windows and adaptive thinking, have maintained the top positions across coding, reasoning, and overall capability metrics while competitors including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini trail by measurable margins. The market’s 98.3% implied probability for Anthropic reflects this sustained benchmark dominance and recent stability in frontier rankings. A late-month surprise release or major evaluation shift from another lab could still alter the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$30,712End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with composite scores of 83–97, driven by superior results on agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Verified, long-context reasoning, and tool-use evaluations as of late August 2026. These models, released or updated earlier in the year with 1M-token windows and adaptive thinking, have maintained the top positions across coding, reasoning, and overall capability metrics while competitors including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini trail by measurable margins. The market’s 98.3% implied probability for Anthropic reflects this sustained benchmark dominance and recent stability in frontier rankings. A late-month surprise release or major evaluation shift from another lab could still alter the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$30,712End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with composite scores of 83–97, driven by superior results on agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Verified, long-context reasoning, and tool-use evaluations as of late August 2026. These models, released or updated earlier in the year with 1M-token windows and adaptive thinking, have maintained the top positions across coding, reasoning, and overall capability metrics while competitors including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini trail by measurable margins. The market’s 98.3% implied probability for Anthropic reflects this sustained benchmark dominance and recent stability in frontier rankings. A late-month surprise release or major evaluation shift from another lab could still alter the outcome before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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