August 2026 global surface temperatures have surged well above prior benchmarks, with early-month daily means contributing to a projected monthly average near 16.96°C that exceeds July 2023’s record. This positioning stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-driven warming amplified by a strengthening El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures to a new peak of 21.1°C in late August, well outside the typical March–April maximum. Copernicus and ECMWF data show persistent marine heat and land-air anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, producing daily values that traders view as overwhelmingly likely to rank August 1–3 as the hottest on record. Only substantial post-analysis revisions to ERA5 or similar datasets, or unexpected cooling signals in final daily reconstructions, could realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 97.5%
4th or lower 2.3%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
1%
3rd hottest
<1%
4th or lower
2%
1st hottest 97.5%
4th or lower 2.3%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$756 Vol.
98%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
1%
3rd hottest
$524 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$405 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.August 2026 global surface temperatures have surged well above prior benchmarks, with early-month daily means contributing to a projected monthly average near 16.96°C that exceeds July 2023’s record. This positioning stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-driven warming amplified by a strengthening El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures to a new peak of 21.1°C in late August, well outside the typical March–April maximum. Copernicus and ECMWF data show persistent marine heat and land-air anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, producing daily values that traders view as overwhelmingly likely to rank August 1–3 as the hottest on record. Only substantial post-analysis revisions to ERA5 or similar datasets, or unexpected cooling signals in final daily reconstructions, could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,249End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.August 2026 global surface temperatures have surged well above prior benchmarks, with early-month daily means contributing to a projected monthly average near 16.96°C that exceeds July 2023’s record. This positioning stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-driven warming amplified by a strengthening El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures to a new peak of 21.1°C in late August, well outside the typical March–April maximum. Copernicus and ECMWF data show persistent marine heat and land-air anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, producing daily values that traders view as overwhelmingly likely to rank August 1–3 as the hottest on record. Only substantial post-analysis revisions to ERA5 or similar datasets, or unexpected cooling signals in final daily reconstructions, could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,249End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...August 2026 global surface temperatures have surged well above prior benchmarks, with early-month daily means contributing to a projected monthly average near 16.96°C that exceeds July 2023’s record. This positioning stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-driven warming amplified by a strengthening El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures to a new peak of 21.1°C in late August, well outside the typical March–April maximum. Copernicus and ECMWF data show persistent marine heat and land-air anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, producing daily values that traders view as overwhelmingly likely to rank August 1–3 as the hottest on record. Only substantial post-analysis revisions to ERA5 or similar datasets, or unexpected cooling signals in final daily reconstructions, could realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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