Traders assign an 89% probability to no major meteor strike of 10kt or greater TNT equivalent in 2026 primarily because such events remain statistically rare, with no confirmed or predicted impacts of that scale through late August. NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and fireball networks have recorded multiple airbursts and meteorite falls this year, including a notable 0.25kt Ohio bolide in March, but all fall well below the threshold and align with typical annual activity rather than signaling escalation. Ongoing monitoring shows no large undetected asteroids on collision courses, consistent with historical patterns where 10kt+ strikes occur far less frequently than once per year. Key near-term catalysts include continued asteroid tracking data and any late-year detections that could alter consensus before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
11% chance
$200,349 Vol.
$200,349 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
11% chance
$200,349 Vol.
$200,349 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign an 89% probability to no major meteor strike of 10kt or greater TNT equivalent in 2026 primarily because such events remain statistically rare, with no confirmed or predicted impacts of that scale through late August. NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and fireball networks have recorded multiple airbursts and meteorite falls this year, including a notable 0.25kt Ohio bolide in March, but all fall well below the threshold and align with typical annual activity rather than signaling escalation. Ongoing monitoring shows no large undetected asteroids on collision courses, consistent with historical patterns where 10kt+ strikes occur far less frequently than once per year. Key near-term catalysts include continued asteroid tracking data and any late-year detections that could alter consensus before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$200,349End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign an 89% probability to no major meteor strike of 10kt or greater TNT equivalent in 2026 primarily because such events remain statistically rare, with no confirmed or predicted impacts of that scale through late August. NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and fireball networks have recorded multiple airbursts and meteorite falls this year, including a notable 0.25kt Ohio bolide in March, but all fall well below the threshold and align with typical annual activity rather than signaling escalation. Ongoing monitoring shows no large undetected asteroids on collision courses, consistent with historical patterns where 10kt+ strikes occur far less frequently than once per year. Key near-term catalysts include continued asteroid tracking data and any late-year detections that could alter consensus before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$200,349End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 89% probability to no major meteor strike of 10kt or greater TNT equivalent in 2026 primarily because such events remain statistically rare, with no confirmed or predicted impacts of that scale through late August. NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and fireball networks have recorded multiple airbursts and meteorite falls this year, including a notable 0.25kt Ohio bolide in March, but all fall well below the threshold and align with typical annual activity rather than signaling escalation. Ongoing monitoring shows no large undetected asteroids on collision courses, consistent with historical patterns where 10kt+ strikes occur far less frequently than once per year. Key near-term catalysts include continued asteroid tracking data and any late-year detections that could alter consensus before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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