Trader consensus favoring "No" at 93.6% stems primarily from the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers along major subduction zone megathrust faults. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in Tohoku (2011) and none since; the 2025 Kamchatka event reached just 8.8 amid otherwise typical M7+ activity. Recurrence intervals average 20–50 years globally, often longer for individual zones like Cascadia (~500 years), and the remaining four-month window to December 31, 2026, yields negligible odds absent accelerating strain or foreshock swarms. While forecasts carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected full-margin rupture could still occur, continuous USGS monitoring shows no supporting precursors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% chance
$309,603 Vol.
$309,603 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
$309,603 Vol.
$309,603 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 93.6% stems primarily from the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers along major subduction zone megathrust faults. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in Tohoku (2011) and none since; the 2025 Kamchatka event reached just 8.8 amid otherwise typical M7+ activity. Recurrence intervals average 20–50 years globally, often longer for individual zones like Cascadia (~500 years), and the remaining four-month window to December 31, 2026, yields negligible odds absent accelerating strain or foreshock swarms. While forecasts carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected full-margin rupture could still occur, continuous USGS monitoring shows no supporting precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$309,603End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 93.6% stems primarily from the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers along major subduction zone megathrust faults. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in Tohoku (2011) and none since; the 2025 Kamchatka event reached just 8.8 amid otherwise typical M7+ activity. Recurrence intervals average 20–50 years globally, often longer for individual zones like Cascadia (~500 years), and the remaining four-month window to December 31, 2026, yields negligible odds absent accelerating strain or foreshock swarms. While forecasts carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected full-margin rupture could still occur, continuous USGS monitoring shows no supporting precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$309,603End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 93.6% stems primarily from the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers along major subduction zone megathrust faults. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in Tohoku (2011) and none since; the 2025 Kamchatka event reached just 8.8 amid otherwise typical M7+ activity. Recurrence intervals average 20–50 years globally, often longer for individual zones like Cascadia (~500 years), and the remaining four-month window to December 31, 2026, yields negligible odds absent accelerating strain or foreshock swarms. While forecasts carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected full-margin rupture could still occur, continuous USGS monitoring shows no supporting precursors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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