**El Niño-driven wind shear and dry air intrusions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, leaving the basin without a single hurricane despite four prior tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly).** All remained below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold due to hostile upper-level winds and entrainment of dry mid-level air, producing a record or near-record delay for the season’s first hurricane. As of August 29, Dolly’s remnants are disorganized east of the Leeward Islands with low redevelopment odds, keeping the next name—Edouard—the leading candidate in trader pricing. Fay follows as the subsequent name, with later options discounted because models favor continued suppression into early September and historical El Niño seasons show reduced early-to-mid season intensification potential. Upcoming National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA model runs, plus any reduction in shear, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if a system organizes and sustains hurricane-force winds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Fay 20%
Edouard 19%
Gonzalo 13.3%
Dolly 7.4%
$19,249 Vol.
$19,249 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
1%
Dolly
7%
Edouard
42%
Fay
20%
Gonzalo
13%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
2%
Josephine
1%
Kyle
1%
Leah
1%
Marco
<1%
Nana
<1%
Omar
<1%
Paulette
<1%
Rene
<1%
Sally
<1%
Teddy
<1%
Vicky
<1%
Wilfred
<1%
Other
1%
Fay 20%
Edouard 19%
Gonzalo 13.3%
Dolly 7.4%
$19,249 Vol.
$19,249 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$2,226 Vol.
1%
Dolly
$3,351 Vol.
7%
Edouard
$2,555 Vol.
42%
Fay
$1,776 Vol.
20%
Gonzalo
$1,089 Vol.
13%
Hanna
$532 Vol.
5%
Isaias
$1,029 Vol.
2%
Josephine
$588 Vol.
1%
Kyle
$611 Vol.
1%
Leah
$607 Vol.
1%
Marco
$493 Vol.
<1%
Nana
$435 Vol.
<1%
Omar
$488 Vol.
<1%
Paulette
$548 Vol.
<1%
Rene
$447 Vol.
<1%
Sally
$515 Vol.
<1%
Teddy
$437 Vol.
<1%
Vicky
$465 Vol.
<1%
Wilfred
$492 Vol.
<1%
Other
$564 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **El Niño-driven wind shear and dry air intrusions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, leaving the basin without a single hurricane despite four prior tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly).** All remained below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold due to hostile upper-level winds and entrainment of dry mid-level air, producing a record or near-record delay for the season’s first hurricane.
As of August 29, Dolly’s remnants are disorganized east of the Leeward Islands with low redevelopment odds, keeping the next name—Edouard—the leading candidate in trader pricing. Fay follows as the subsequent name, with later options discounted because models favor continued suppression into early September and historical El Niño seasons show reduced early-to-mid season intensification potential. Upcoming National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA model runs, plus any reduction in shear, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if a system organizes and sustains hurricane-force winds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Volume
$19,249End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **El Niño-driven wind shear and dry air intrusions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, leaving the basin without a single hurricane despite four prior tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly).** All remained below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold due to hostile upper-level winds and entrainment of dry mid-level air, producing a record or near-record delay for the season’s first hurricane.
As of August 29, Dolly’s remnants are disorganized east of the Leeward Islands with low redevelopment odds, keeping the next name—Edouard—the leading candidate in trader pricing. Fay follows as the subsequent name, with later options discounted because models favor continued suppression into early September and historical El Niño seasons show reduced early-to-mid season intensification potential. Upcoming National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA model runs, plus any reduction in shear, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if a system organizes and sustains hurricane-force winds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$19,249End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**El Niño-driven wind shear and dry air intrusions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, leaving the basin without a single hurricane despite four prior tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly).** All remained below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold due to hostile upper-level winds and entrainment of dry mid-level air, producing a record or near-record delay for the season’s first hurricane. As of August 29, Dolly’s remnants are disorganized east of the Leeward Islands with low redevelopment odds, keeping the next name—Edouard—the leading candidate in trader pricing. Fay follows as the subsequent name, with later options discounted because models favor continued suppression into early September and historical El Niño seasons show reduced early-to-mid season intensification potential. Upcoming National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA model runs, plus any reduction in shear, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if a system organizes and sustains hurricane-force winds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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