Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a daily high near 32°C in Shanghai on August 29, driven by typical late-summer subtropical conditions featuring moderate southeast winds, high humidity around 70-80%, and scattered afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Current observations show highs of 32-33°C with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, consistent with climatological August averages of 31°C. Limited model spread and absence of strong high-pressure ridging or clear-sky anomalies support the market-implied 55.5% probability on 32°C over 33°C or lower outcomes, though updated short-range runs closer to the date could shift probabilities if cloud cover or rainfall timing changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 29?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 29?
32°C 56%
33°C 22%
31°C 16%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
16%
32°C
56%
33°C
22%
34°C
5%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 56%
33°C 22%
31°C 16%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
26°C or below
$252 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$317 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$144 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$91 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$157 Vol.
4%
31°C
$108 Vol.
16%
32°C
$1,048 Vol.
56%
33°C
$183 Vol.
22%
34°C
$83 Vol.
5%
35°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$138 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a daily high near 32°C in Shanghai on August 29, driven by typical late-summer subtropical conditions featuring moderate southeast winds, high humidity around 70-80%, and scattered afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Current observations show highs of 32-33°C with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, consistent with climatological August averages of 31°C. Limited model spread and absence of strong high-pressure ridging or clear-sky anomalies support the market-implied 55.5% probability on 32°C over 33°C or lower outcomes, though updated short-range runs closer to the date could shift probabilities if cloud cover or rainfall timing changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,811End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a daily high near 32°C in Shanghai on August 29, driven by typical late-summer subtropical conditions featuring moderate southeast winds, high humidity around 70-80%, and scattered afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Current observations show highs of 32-33°C with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, consistent with climatological August averages of 31°C. Limited model spread and absence of strong high-pressure ridging or clear-sky anomalies support the market-implied 55.5% probability on 32°C over 33°C or lower outcomes, though updated short-range runs closer to the date could shift probabilities if cloud cover or rainfall timing changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,811End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a daily high near 32°C in Shanghai on August 29, driven by typical late-summer subtropical conditions featuring moderate southeast winds, high humidity around 70-80%, and scattered afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Current observations show highs of 32-33°C with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, consistent with climatological August averages of 31°C. Limited model spread and absence of strong high-pressure ridging or clear-sky anomalies support the market-implied 55.5% probability on 32°C over 33°C or lower outcomes, though updated short-range runs closer to the date could shift probabilities if cloud cover or rainfall timing changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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