**Recent forecasts from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models converge on a daytime high of 31–32°C for August 28, 2026, with showers or light rain expected.** This consensus, backed by consistent outputs showing highs near 31°C (e.g., 28–32°C ranges with easterly winds and 40–80% precipitation chances), underpins the market's strong weighting toward 31°C at 57% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and rain associated with the remnants of Typhoon Shadell (No. 18) are key moderating factors, limiting solar heating and preventing the peak from exceeding recent days' 32–33°C readings. Coastal humidity, sea breezes, and typical late-August monsoon patterns further stabilize temperatures around the seasonal average high of ~31°C. Model agreement on these conditions, with limited divergence in latest runs, has reinforced trader positioning away from higher (33°C+) or lower (30°C or below) outcomes, which carry minimal implied odds. Upcoming official updates from the Shanghai bureau or refined model runs could shift sentiment if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
31°C 57%
32°C 27%
30°C 15%
29°C 3%
NEW
$12,303 Vol.
NEW
$12,303 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
15%
31°C
57%
32°C
27%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 57%
32°C 27%
30°C 15%
29°C 3%
NEW
$12,303 Vol.
NEW
$12,303 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
$184 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$185 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$930 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,879 Vol.
3%
30°C
$3,095 Vol.
15%
31°C
$1,790 Vol.
57%
32°C
$2,753 Vol.
27%
33°C
$1,045 Vol.
3%
34°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$211 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models converge on a daytime high of 31–32°C for August 28, 2026, with showers or light rain expected.** This consensus, backed by consistent outputs showing highs near 31°C (e.g., 28–32°C ranges with easterly winds and 40–80% precipitation chances), underpins the market's strong weighting toward 31°C at 57% implied probability.
Persistent cloud cover and rain associated with the remnants of Typhoon Shadell (No. 18) are key moderating factors, limiting solar heating and preventing the peak from exceeding recent days' 32–33°C readings. Coastal humidity, sea breezes, and typical late-August monsoon patterns further stabilize temperatures around the seasonal average high of ~31°C. Model agreement on these conditions, with limited divergence in latest runs, has reinforced trader positioning away from higher (33°C+) or lower (30°C or below) outcomes, which carry minimal implied odds.
Upcoming official updates from the Shanghai bureau or refined model runs could shift sentiment if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,303End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models converge on a daytime high of 31–32°C for August 28, 2026, with showers or light rain expected.** This consensus, backed by consistent outputs showing highs near 31°C (e.g., 28–32°C ranges with easterly winds and 40–80% precipitation chances), underpins the market's strong weighting toward 31°C at 57% implied probability.
Persistent cloud cover and rain associated with the remnants of Typhoon Shadell (No. 18) are key moderating factors, limiting solar heating and preventing the peak from exceeding recent days' 32–33°C readings. Coastal humidity, sea breezes, and typical late-August monsoon patterns further stabilize temperatures around the seasonal average high of ~31°C. Model agreement on these conditions, with limited divergence in latest runs, has reinforced trader positioning away from higher (33°C+) or lower (30°C or below) outcomes, which carry minimal implied odds.
Upcoming official updates from the Shanghai bureau or refined model runs could shift sentiment if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,303End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models converge on a daytime high of 31–32°C for August 28, 2026, with showers or light rain expected.** This consensus, backed by consistent outputs showing highs near 31°C (e.g., 28–32°C ranges with easterly winds and 40–80% precipitation chances), underpins the market's strong weighting toward 31°C at 57% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and rain associated with the remnants of Typhoon Shadell (No. 18) are key moderating factors, limiting solar heating and preventing the peak from exceeding recent days' 32–33°C readings. Coastal humidity, sea breezes, and typical late-August monsoon patterns further stabilize temperatures around the seasonal average high of ~31°C. Model agreement on these conditions, with limited divergence in latest runs, has reinforced trader positioning away from higher (33°C+) or lower (30°C or below) outcomes, which carry minimal implied odds. Upcoming official updates from the Shanghai bureau or refined model runs could shift sentiment if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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