Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus indicate Houston will likely see a sunny, hot day on August 31 with highs in the mid-90s under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 92-93°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf have sustained elevated baseline warmth through late August, while low-level moisture and sea-breeze convergence introduce minor afternoon convective risk that could cap the daily maximum. Historical late-August climatology places typical peaks near 91–95°F, and the current forecast alignment with this range, absent major model shifts before resolution, explains trader positioning around the 90–95°F bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 31?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 31?
96-97°F 49%
94-95°F 40%
92-93°F 23%
90-91°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
83°F or below
1%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
23%
94-95°F
40%
96-97°F
49%
98-99°F
16%
100-101°F
7%
102°F or higher
7%
96-97°F 49%
94-95°F 40%
92-93°F 23%
90-91°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
83°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
7%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
20%
92-93°F
$149 Vol.
23%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
40%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
49%
98-99°F
$33 Vol.
16%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
7%
102°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus indicate Houston will likely see a sunny, hot day on August 31 with highs in the mid-90s under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 92-93°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf have sustained elevated baseline warmth through late August, while low-level moisture and sea-breeze convergence introduce minor afternoon convective risk that could cap the daily maximum. Historical late-August climatology places typical peaks near 91–95°F, and the current forecast alignment with this range, absent major model shifts before resolution, explains trader positioning around the 90–95°F bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$182End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus indicate Houston will likely see a sunny, hot day on August 31 with highs in the mid-90s under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 92-93°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf have sustained elevated baseline warmth through late August, while low-level moisture and sea-breeze convergence introduce minor afternoon convective risk that could cap the daily maximum. Historical late-August climatology places typical peaks near 91–95°F, and the current forecast alignment with this range, absent major model shifts before resolution, explains trader positioning around the 90–95°F bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$182End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus indicate Houston will likely see a sunny, hot day on August 31 with highs in the mid-90s under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 92-93°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf have sustained elevated baseline warmth through late August, while low-level moisture and sea-breeze convergence introduce minor afternoon convective risk that could cap the daily maximum. Historical late-August climatology places typical peaks near 91–95°F, and the current forecast alignment with this range, absent major model shifts before resolution, explains trader positioning around the 90–95°F bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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