Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates Austin will experience continued hot, dry conditions under a strong subtropical ridge, with forecast highs near 98–100°F for August 31 amid light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. These patterns align with the 2026 summer heat wave that produced multiple 104–107°F readings earlier in August, elevating the market-implied probability for 108°F or higher. Trader consensus also accounts for typical model spread in maximum temperature forecasts and the historical precedent of 106°F records on this date, while lower-range outcomes reflect the more probable climatological trajectory near the 94–95°F seasonal average. Updated model runs and any late adjustments to the ridge position will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 31?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 31?
98-99°F 44%
100-101°F 34%
102-103°F 33%
96-97°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
1%
90-91°F
15%
92-93°F
14%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
25%
98-99°F
44%
100-101°F
34%
102-103°F
33%
104-105°F
19%
106-107°F
17%
108°F or higher
15%
98-99°F 44%
100-101°F 34%
102-103°F 33%
96-97°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
15%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
14%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
19%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
25%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
44%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
34%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
33%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
19%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
17%
108°F or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates Austin will experience continued hot, dry conditions under a strong subtropical ridge, with forecast highs near 98–100°F for August 31 amid light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. These patterns align with the 2026 summer heat wave that produced multiple 104–107°F readings earlier in August, elevating the market-implied probability for 108°F or higher. Trader consensus also accounts for typical model spread in maximum temperature forecasts and the historical precedent of 106°F records on this date, while lower-range outcomes reflect the more probable climatological trajectory near the 94–95°F seasonal average. Updated model runs and any late adjustments to the ridge position will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates Austin will experience continued hot, dry conditions under a strong subtropical ridge, with forecast highs near 98–100°F for August 31 amid light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. These patterns align with the 2026 summer heat wave that produced multiple 104–107°F readings earlier in August, elevating the market-implied probability for 108°F or higher. Trader consensus also accounts for typical model spread in maximum temperature forecasts and the historical precedent of 106°F records on this date, while lower-range outcomes reflect the more probable climatological trajectory near the 94–95°F seasonal average. Updated model runs and any late adjustments to the ridge position will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates Austin will experience continued hot, dry conditions under a strong subtropical ridge, with forecast highs near 98–100°F for August 31 amid light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. These patterns align with the 2026 summer heat wave that produced multiple 104–107°F readings earlier in August, elevating the market-implied probability for 108°F or higher. Trader consensus also accounts for typical model spread in maximum temperature forecasts and the historical precedent of 106°F records on this date, while lower-range outcomes reflect the more probable climatological trajectory near the 94–95°F seasonal average. Updated model runs and any late adjustments to the ridge position will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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