Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a moderating synoptic pattern over northern France, with southwesterly flow and increasing Atlantic moisture supporting daily highs near 23°C for Paris on August 29. Cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to limit solar heating and cap peaks, producing market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24°C. Differentiation among these outcomes stems from uncertainties in frontal timing, convective intensity, and local boundary-layer mixing, which can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2°C depending on when any clearing occurs. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 29?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 29?
23°C 42%
24°C 28%
22°C 21%
25°C or higher 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
6%
22°C
21%
23°C
36%
24°C
28%
25°C or higher
17%
23°C 42%
24°C 28%
22°C 21%
25°C or higher 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$12 Vol.
4%
21°C
$15 Vol.
6%
22°C
$5 Vol.
21%
23°C
$7 Vol.
36%
24°C
$5 Vol.
28%
25°C or higher
$75 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a moderating synoptic pattern over northern France, with southwesterly flow and increasing Atlantic moisture supporting daily highs near 23°C for Paris on August 29. Cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to limit solar heating and cap peaks, producing market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24°C. Differentiation among these outcomes stems from uncertainties in frontal timing, convective intensity, and local boundary-layer mixing, which can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2°C depending on when any clearing occurs. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a moderating synoptic pattern over northern France, with southwesterly flow and increasing Atlantic moisture supporting daily highs near 23°C for Paris on August 29. Cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to limit solar heating and cap peaks, producing market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24°C. Differentiation among these outcomes stems from uncertainties in frontal timing, convective intensity, and local boundary-layer mixing, which can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2°C depending on when any clearing occurs. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a moderating synoptic pattern over northern France, with southwesterly flow and increasing Atlantic moisture supporting daily highs near 23°C for Paris on August 29. Cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to limit solar heating and cap peaks, producing market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24°C. Differentiation among these outcomes stems from uncertainties in frontal timing, convective intensity, and local boundary-layer mixing, which can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2°C depending on when any clearing occurs. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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