Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus project a high near 99–100°F for Austin on August 30 under persistent subtropical ridge influence, clear to mostly sunny skies, and light southerly flow that limits mixing and supports daytime heating. With negligible precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-60s, surface temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 90s to low 100s, consistent with late-August climatology slightly above the 95°F average high. These conditions position the 98–101°F bins as the leading market-implied outcomes at over 70% combined probability, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability in the short-term guidance ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 30?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 30?
98-99°F 43%
100-101°F 31%
96-97°F 13%
102-103°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
13%
98-99°F
43%
100-101°F
31%
102-103°F
7%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 43%
100-101°F 31%
96-97°F 13%
102-103°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
89°F or below
$250 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$149 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$15 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$10 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$17 Vol.
13%
98-99°F
$2,075 Vol.
43%
100-101°F
$223 Vol.
31%
102-103°F
$50 Vol.
7%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
2%
106-107°F
$41 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus project a high near 99–100°F for Austin on August 30 under persistent subtropical ridge influence, clear to mostly sunny skies, and light southerly flow that limits mixing and supports daytime heating. With negligible precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-60s, surface temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 90s to low 100s, consistent with late-August climatology slightly above the 95°F average high. These conditions position the 98–101°F bins as the leading market-implied outcomes at over 70% combined probability, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability in the short-term guidance ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,887End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus project a high near 99–100°F for Austin on August 30 under persistent subtropical ridge influence, clear to mostly sunny skies, and light southerly flow that limits mixing and supports daytime heating. With negligible precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-60s, surface temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 90s to low 100s, consistent with late-August climatology slightly above the 95°F average high. These conditions position the 98–101°F bins as the leading market-implied outcomes at over 70% combined probability, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability in the short-term guidance ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,887End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus project a high near 99–100°F for Austin on August 30 under persistent subtropical ridge influence, clear to mostly sunny skies, and light southerly flow that limits mixing and supports daytime heating. With negligible precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-60s, surface temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 90s to low 100s, consistent with late-August climatology slightly above the 95°F average high. These conditions position the 98–101°F bins as the leading market-implied outcomes at over 70% combined probability, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability in the short-term guidance ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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