Recent forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and AEMET-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and minimal wind on August 31, favoring daytime heating under a stable high-pressure ridge. Model consensus centers on afternoon highs of 32–34 °C, with 34 °C emerging as the most probable peak given current thermal profiles and the urban heat-island effect. Earlier August heat waves reached 37–38 °C, but a mid-month cool spell and subsequent gradual warming have positioned late-month values near seasonal normals of ~30–33 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 33–35 °C reflects low forecast spread and high confidence in the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity through the period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
34°C 53%
35°C 25%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
6%
33°C
19%
34°C
53%
35°C
25%
36°C
8%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 53%
35°C 25%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
6%
33°C
$17 Vol.
19%
34°C
$71 Vol.
53%
35°C
$101 Vol.
25%
36°C
$0 Vol.
8%
37°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and AEMET-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and minimal wind on August 31, favoring daytime heating under a stable high-pressure ridge. Model consensus centers on afternoon highs of 32–34 °C, with 34 °C emerging as the most probable peak given current thermal profiles and the urban heat-island effect. Earlier August heat waves reached 37–38 °C, but a mid-month cool spell and subsequent gradual warming have positioned late-month values near seasonal normals of ~30–33 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 33–35 °C reflects low forecast spread and high confidence in the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity through the period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$214End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and AEMET-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and minimal wind on August 31, favoring daytime heating under a stable high-pressure ridge. Model consensus centers on afternoon highs of 32–34 °C, with 34 °C emerging as the most probable peak given current thermal profiles and the urban heat-island effect. Earlier August heat waves reached 37–38 °C, but a mid-month cool spell and subsequent gradual warming have positioned late-month values near seasonal normals of ~30–33 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 33–35 °C reflects low forecast spread and high confidence in the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity through the period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$214End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and AEMET-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and minimal wind on August 31, favoring daytime heating under a stable high-pressure ridge. Model consensus centers on afternoon highs of 32–34 °C, with 34 °C emerging as the most probable peak given current thermal profiles and the urban heat-island effect. Earlier August heat waves reached 37–38 °C, but a mid-month cool spell and subsequent gradual warming have positioned late-month values near seasonal normals of ~30–33 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 33–35 °C reflects low forecast spread and high confidence in the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity through the period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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