Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and international sources, indicate predominantly sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and dry conditions over Madrid on August 30, supporting surface heating under a building high-pressure ridge following the anomalously cool 21–26°C readings on August 28. Ensemble guidance clusters daytime maxima near 30–32°C, slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 30.3°C for the date, with limited model spread on cloud cover or advection. This setup positions 33°C as the market favorite at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest exceedance of baseline values amid stable synoptic patterns, while lower outcomes like 32°C (17.5%) or 34°C (21%) capture residual uncertainty in peak timing and exact measurement at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
33°C 61%
34°C 21%
32°C 18%
31°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
18%
33°C
61%
34°C
21%
35°C
2%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 61%
34°C 21%
32°C 18%
31°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
$321 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$180 Vol.
1%
30°C
$107 Vol.
1%
31°C
$140 Vol.
2%
32°C
$401 Vol.
18%
33°C
$665 Vol.
61%
34°C
$1,315 Vol.
21%
35°C
$286 Vol.
2%
36°C
$92 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$70 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and international sources, indicate predominantly sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and dry conditions over Madrid on August 30, supporting surface heating under a building high-pressure ridge following the anomalously cool 21–26°C readings on August 28. Ensemble guidance clusters daytime maxima near 30–32°C, slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 30.3°C for the date, with limited model spread on cloud cover or advection. This setup positions 33°C as the market favorite at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest exceedance of baseline values amid stable synoptic patterns, while lower outcomes like 32°C (17.5%) or 34°C (21%) capture residual uncertainty in peak timing and exact measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,696End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and international sources, indicate predominantly sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and dry conditions over Madrid on August 30, supporting surface heating under a building high-pressure ridge following the anomalously cool 21–26°C readings on August 28. Ensemble guidance clusters daytime maxima near 30–32°C, slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 30.3°C for the date, with limited model spread on cloud cover or advection. This setup positions 33°C as the market favorite at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest exceedance of baseline values amid stable synoptic patterns, while lower outcomes like 32°C (17.5%) or 34°C (21%) capture residual uncertainty in peak timing and exact measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,696End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and international sources, indicate predominantly sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and dry conditions over Madrid on August 30, supporting surface heating under a building high-pressure ridge following the anomalously cool 21–26°C readings on August 28. Ensemble guidance clusters daytime maxima near 30–32°C, slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 30.3°C for the date, with limited model spread on cloud cover or advection. This setup positions 33°C as the market favorite at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest exceedance of baseline values amid stable synoptic patterns, while lower outcomes like 32°C (17.5%) or 34°C (21%) capture residual uncertainty in peak timing and exact measurement at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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