A warm, dry air mass currently dominating southeastern Brazil is elevating maximum temperatures in São Paulo through enhanced subsidence and reduced cloud cover, supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 30–32°C for August 30. Official forecasts from sources including the Centro de Gerenciamento de Emergências Climáticas and numerical models indicate partly cloudy conditions with northwest winds, yielding diurnal peaks likely in the low to mid-30s Celsius before a cold front arrives September 1. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty from model spread on exact cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, which can add 1–2°C locally, alongside historical August extremes rarely exceeding 32°C in the capital. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
31°C 24%
30°C 19%
32°C 16%
33°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
19%
31°C
24%
32°C
16%
33°C
13%
34°C
9%
35°C
4%
36°C
4%
37°C
3%
38°C or higher
<1%
31°C 24%
30°C 19%
32°C 16%
33°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
$49 Vol.
3%
29°C
$30 Vol.
7%
30°C
$10 Vol.
19%
31°C
$41 Vol.
24%
32°C
$101 Vol.
16%
33°C
$12 Vol.
13%
34°C
$0 Vol.
9%
35°C
$0 Vol.
4%
36°C
$0 Vol.
4%
37°C
$7 Vol.
3%
38°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass currently dominating southeastern Brazil is elevating maximum temperatures in São Paulo through enhanced subsidence and reduced cloud cover, supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 30–32°C for August 30. Official forecasts from sources including the Centro de Gerenciamento de Emergências Climáticas and numerical models indicate partly cloudy conditions with northwest winds, yielding diurnal peaks likely in the low to mid-30s Celsius before a cold front arrives September 1. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty from model spread on exact cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, which can add 1–2°C locally, alongside historical August extremes rarely exceeding 32°C in the capital. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$259End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass currently dominating southeastern Brazil is elevating maximum temperatures in São Paulo through enhanced subsidence and reduced cloud cover, supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 30–32°C for August 30. Official forecasts from sources including the Centro de Gerenciamento de Emergências Climáticas and numerical models indicate partly cloudy conditions with northwest winds, yielding diurnal peaks likely in the low to mid-30s Celsius before a cold front arrives September 1. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty from model spread on exact cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, which can add 1–2°C locally, alongside historical August extremes rarely exceeding 32°C in the capital. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$259End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A warm, dry air mass currently dominating southeastern Brazil is elevating maximum temperatures in São Paulo through enhanced subsidence and reduced cloud cover, supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 30–32°C for August 30. Official forecasts from sources including the Centro de Gerenciamento de Emergências Climáticas and numerical models indicate partly cloudy conditions with northwest winds, yielding diurnal peaks likely in the low to mid-30s Celsius before a cold front arrives September 1. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty from model spread on exact cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, which can add 1–2°C locally, alongside historical August extremes rarely exceeding 32°C in the capital. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions