**A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving elevated temperatures across São Paulo ahead of a cold front and rain expected after September 1.** Official and model guidance from sources such as INMET-influenced outlooks and Meteoblue indicate clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds and very low humidity (often below 30-40%), which favors strong daytime heating under subtropical high pressure. This setup has already pushed recent highs above 30°C, with August 29 forecasts clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius—consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 33–34°C outcomes. Typical August maxima average near 22–23°C, so the current anomaly stems from persistent warm advection and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Model spreads show some variation (31–36°C), reflecting minor differences in timing of peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing, but the consensus supports a peak in the low-to-mid 30s. Traders’ implied probabilities align with this evidence-based range, as the warm spell is expected to peak before the seasonal shift. No major updates have altered the outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
34°C 40%
33°C 30%
32°C 17%
35°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
3%
32°C
17%
33°C
30%
34°C
40%
35°C
15%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
1%
34°C 40%
33°C 30%
32°C 17%
35°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5 Vol.
3%
31°C
$0 Vol.
3%
32°C
$38 Vol.
17%
33°C
$103 Vol.
30%
34°C
$208 Vol.
40%
35°C
$301 Vol.
15%
36°C
$0 Vol.
4%
37°C
$0 Vol.
2%
38°C or higher
$328 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving elevated temperatures across São Paulo ahead of a cold front and rain expected after September 1.** Official and model guidance from sources such as INMET-influenced outlooks and Meteoblue indicate clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds and very low humidity (often below 30-40%), which favors strong daytime heating under subtropical high pressure. This setup has already pushed recent highs above 30°C, with August 29 forecasts clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius—consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 33–34°C outcomes.
Typical August maxima average near 22–23°C, so the current anomaly stems from persistent warm advection and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Model spreads show some variation (31–36°C), reflecting minor differences in timing of peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing, but the consensus supports a peak in the low-to-mid 30s. Traders’ implied probabilities align with this evidence-based range, as the warm spell is expected to peak before the seasonal shift. No major updates have altered the outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$983End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving elevated temperatures across São Paulo ahead of a cold front and rain expected after September 1.** Official and model guidance from sources such as INMET-influenced outlooks and Meteoblue indicate clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds and very low humidity (often below 30-40%), which favors strong daytime heating under subtropical high pressure. This setup has already pushed recent highs above 30°C, with August 29 forecasts clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius—consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 33–34°C outcomes.
Typical August maxima average near 22–23°C, so the current anomaly stems from persistent warm advection and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Model spreads show some variation (31–36°C), reflecting minor differences in timing of peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing, but the consensus supports a peak in the low-to-mid 30s. Traders’ implied probabilities align with this evidence-based range, as the warm spell is expected to peak before the seasonal shift. No major updates have altered the outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$983End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving elevated temperatures across São Paulo ahead of a cold front and rain expected after September 1.** Official and model guidance from sources such as INMET-influenced outlooks and Meteoblue indicate clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds and very low humidity (often below 30-40%), which favors strong daytime heating under subtropical high pressure. This setup has already pushed recent highs above 30°C, with August 29 forecasts clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius—consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 33–34°C outcomes. Typical August maxima average near 22–23°C, so the current anomaly stems from persistent warm advection and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Model spreads show some variation (31–36°C), reflecting minor differences in timing of peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing, but the consensus supports a peak in the low-to-mid 30s. Traders’ implied probabilities align with this evidence-based range, as the warm spell is expected to peak before the seasonal shift. No major updates have altered the outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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