Trader consensus around 27–29°C for Qingdao’s August 30 maximum reflects ensemble forecast spread from global and regional models, with no single run dominating. Key differentiators include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Yellow Sea, which modulates onshore flow and daytime heating, alongside variable mid-level moisture from an approaching trough. Sea surface temperatures near 26°C provide a stable baseline, while local urbanization and sea breezes add microscale uncertainty. Historical late-August averages near 28°C align with current guidance, yet model disagreement on exact timing of any frontal passage keeps probabilities tightly bunched. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 30?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 30?
28°C 35%
27°C 23%
29°C 20%
26°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
10%
27°C
23%
28°C
35%
29°C
20%
30°C
7%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 35%
27°C 23%
29°C 20%
26°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$46 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$389 Vol.
10%
27°C
$49 Vol.
23%
28°C
$10 Vol.
35%
29°C
$148 Vol.
20%
30°C
$58 Vol.
7%
31°C
$82 Vol.
5%
32°C
$91 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 27–29°C for Qingdao’s August 30 maximum reflects ensemble forecast spread from global and regional models, with no single run dominating. Key differentiators include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Yellow Sea, which modulates onshore flow and daytime heating, alongside variable mid-level moisture from an approaching trough. Sea surface temperatures near 26°C provide a stable baseline, while local urbanization and sea breezes add microscale uncertainty. Historical late-August averages near 28°C align with current guidance, yet model disagreement on exact timing of any frontal passage keeps probabilities tightly bunched. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$879End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 27–29°C for Qingdao’s August 30 maximum reflects ensemble forecast spread from global and regional models, with no single run dominating. Key differentiators include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Yellow Sea, which modulates onshore flow and daytime heating, alongside variable mid-level moisture from an approaching trough. Sea surface temperatures near 26°C provide a stable baseline, while local urbanization and sea breezes add microscale uncertainty. Historical late-August averages near 28°C align with current guidance, yet model disagreement on exact timing of any frontal passage keeps probabilities tightly bunched. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$879End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 27–29°C for Qingdao’s August 30 maximum reflects ensemble forecast spread from global and regional models, with no single run dominating. Key differentiators include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Yellow Sea, which modulates onshore flow and daytime heating, alongside variable mid-level moisture from an approaching trough. Sea surface temperatures near 26°C provide a stable baseline, while local urbanization and sea breezes add microscale uncertainty. Historical late-August averages near 28°C align with current guidance, yet model disagreement on exact timing of any frontal passage keeps probabilities tightly bunched. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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