A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 49%
2nd hottest 49%
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
49%
2nd hottest
49%
3rd hottest
49%
4th or lower
49%
1st hottest 49%
2nd hottest 49%
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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