**Global seismicity follows a stable long-term rate governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, with roughly 1,900 magnitude 5+ events annually worldwide, implying an average of about 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes per week.** Recent 2026 data show activity slightly below the historical mean for larger events, with 26 M6.5+ quakes year-to-date as of late August. The narrow spread in Polymarket-implied probabilities across 6–13 events reflects the inherent Poisson variability of earthquake occurrence rather than any specific precursor or model consensus. No major tectonic signals or aftershock sequences currently point to a clear deviation from baseline rates ahead of the August 31–September 6 window. USGS monitoring updates and ongoing global catalogs will provide the resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
≤6 23%
8 14%
9 12%
10 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
≤6
23%
7
10%
8
14%
9
12%
10
11%
11
9%
12
8%
13
6%
more than 13
10%
≤6 23%
8 14%
9 12%
10 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
≤6
$298 Vol.
23%
7
$14 Vol.
10%
8
$0 Vol.
14%
9
$0 Vol.
12%
10
$0 Vol.
11%
11
$0 Vol.
9%
12
$0 Vol.
8%
13
$0 Vol.
6%
more than 13
$9 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global seismicity follows a stable long-term rate governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, with roughly 1,900 magnitude 5+ events annually worldwide, implying an average of about 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes per week.** Recent 2026 data show activity slightly below the historical mean for larger events, with 26 M6.5+ quakes year-to-date as of late August. The narrow spread in Polymarket-implied probabilities across 6–13 events reflects the inherent Poisson variability of earthquake occurrence rather than any specific precursor or model consensus. No major tectonic signals or aftershock sequences currently point to a clear deviation from baseline rates ahead of the August 31–September 6 window. USGS monitoring updates and ongoing global catalogs will provide the resolution data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$321End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global seismicity follows a stable long-term rate governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, with roughly 1,900 magnitude 5+ events annually worldwide, implying an average of about 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes per week.** Recent 2026 data show activity slightly below the historical mean for larger events, with 26 M6.5+ quakes year-to-date as of late August. The narrow spread in Polymarket-implied probabilities across 6–13 events reflects the inherent Poisson variability of earthquake occurrence rather than any specific precursor or model consensus. No major tectonic signals or aftershock sequences currently point to a clear deviation from baseline rates ahead of the August 31–September 6 window. USGS monitoring updates and ongoing global catalogs will provide the resolution data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$321End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Global seismicity follows a stable long-term rate governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, with roughly 1,900 magnitude 5+ events annually worldwide, implying an average of about 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes per week.** Recent 2026 data show activity slightly below the historical mean for larger events, with 26 M6.5+ quakes year-to-date as of late August. The narrow spread in Polymarket-implied probabilities across 6–13 events reflects the inherent Poisson variability of earthquake occurrence rather than any specific precursor or model consensus. No major tectonic signals or aftershock sequences currently point to a clear deviation from baseline rates ahead of the August 31–September 6 window. USGS monitoring updates and ongoing global catalogs will provide the resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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