Strong El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA and intensifying into a moderate-to-strong event, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply limiting tropical cyclone formation, organization, and intensification. The 2026 season has produced only three named storms through late August with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA (0–2 major hurricanes) and Colorado State University (around 17–24% chance of any Category 3+ U.S. landfall) reflect this suppressed environment, well below historical averages. With the season’s remaining peak window offering limited opportunity for rapid strengthening into Category 4 status before landfall, trader consensus heavily favors no qualifying U.S. event through December 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% chance
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
16% chance
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA and intensifying into a moderate-to-strong event, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply limiting tropical cyclone formation, organization, and intensification. The 2026 season has produced only three named storms through late August with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA (0–2 major hurricanes) and Colorado State University (around 17–24% chance of any Category 3+ U.S. landfall) reflect this suppressed environment, well below historical averages. With the season’s remaining peak window offering limited opportunity for rapid strengthening into Category 4 status before landfall, trader consensus heavily favors no qualifying U.S. event through December 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,802End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA and intensifying into a moderate-to-strong event, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply limiting tropical cyclone formation, organization, and intensification. The 2026 season has produced only three named storms through late August with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA (0–2 major hurricanes) and Colorado State University (around 17–24% chance of any Category 3+ U.S. landfall) reflect this suppressed environment, well below historical averages. With the season’s remaining peak window offering limited opportunity for rapid strengthening into Category 4 status before landfall, trader consensus heavily favors no qualifying U.S. event through December 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,802End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA and intensifying into a moderate-to-strong event, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply limiting tropical cyclone formation, organization, and intensification. The 2026 season has produced only three named storms through late August with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA (0–2 major hurricanes) and Colorado State University (around 17–24% chance of any Category 3+ U.S. landfall) reflect this suppressed environment, well below historical averages. With the season’s remaining peak window offering limited opportunity for rapid strengthening into Category 4 status before landfall, trader consensus heavily favors no qualifying U.S. event through December 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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