The near-certainty of no megaquake by August 31 stems primarily from the four-day window remaining and the rarity of such events. USGS seismic monitoring shows no precursors like foreshock swarms or unusual strain accumulation that would signal an imminent magnitude 8+ rupture on major faults. Globally, great earthquakes occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, with even lower short-term probabilities in any given region due to the stochastic nature of tectonic stress release. Traders assign 97.5% implied odds to “No” because forecast models and historical catalogs confirm these events cannot be reliably anticipated days ahead. A sudden, unexpected rupture remains theoretically possible but would require unprecedented seismic escalation within the tight deadline.