**No at 88% reflects the low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California, consistent with USGS recurrence models and current observations.** Through late August 2026, the strongest event recorded statewide was a 5.6 near Ukiah in June—the largest since 2022—with dozens of smaller quakes (mostly below 3.0) dominating recent USGS and SCEDC catalogs and activity running below average. Historical patterns show M7+ events recur on major faults like the San Andreas every several decades on average, not annually, while UCERF3-style forecasts imply roughly a 10–20% yearly chance statewide for such magnitudes. Strain continues to accumulate on southern segments, yet no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus signals an imminent large rupture in the remaining months. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude for any qualifying event before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **No at 88% reflects the low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California, consistent with USGS recurrence models and current observations.** Through late August 2026, the strongest event recorded statewide was a 5.6 near Ukiah in June—the largest since 2022—with dozens of smaller quakes (mostly below 3.0) dominating recent USGS and SCEDC catalogs and activity running below average. Historical patterns show M7+ events recur on major faults like the San Andreas every several decades on average, not annually, while UCERF3-style forecasts imply roughly a 10–20% yearly chance statewide for such magnitudes. Strain continues to accumulate on southern segments, yet no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus signals an imminent large rupture in the remaining months. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude for any qualifying event before year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$5,689End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **No at 88% reflects the low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California, consistent with USGS recurrence models and current observations.** Through late August 2026, the strongest event recorded statewide was a 5.6 near Ukiah in June—the largest since 2022—with dozens of smaller quakes (mostly below 3.0) dominating recent USGS and SCEDC catalogs and activity running below average. Historical patterns show M7+ events recur on major faults like the San Andreas every several decades on average, not annually, while UCERF3-style forecasts imply roughly a 10–20% yearly chance statewide for such magnitudes. Strain continues to accumulate on southern segments, yet no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus signals an imminent large rupture in the remaining months. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude for any qualifying event before year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volume
$5,689End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 88% reflects the low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California, consistent with USGS recurrence models and current observations.** Through late August 2026, the strongest event recorded statewide was a 5.6 near Ukiah in June—the largest since 2022—with dozens of smaller quakes (mostly below 3.0) dominating recent USGS and SCEDC catalogs and activity running below average. Historical patterns show M7+ events recur on major faults like the San Andreas every several decades on average, not annually, while UCERF3-style forecasts imply roughly a 10–20% yearly chance statewide for such magnitudes. Strain continues to accumulate on southern segments, yet no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus signals an imminent large rupture in the remaining months. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude for any qualifying event before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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