Strong high-pressure ridging over the Southwest has sustained dangerously hot conditions across Phoenix, with National Weather Service Extreme Heat Warnings in effect for the majority of August 2026. Official alerts covered an earlier stretch through August 9 and have been repeatedly extended since mid-month, currently running through August 29 with afternoon highs frequently reaching 110–115°F and minimal overnight relief in the upper 80s to low 90s. These verified measurements and warning durations already place the monthly total well above the 10-day threshold, aligning with the 78.4% market-implied odds for “Yes.” A forecast pattern shift late in the week may ease temperatures into early September, yet it arrives too late to alter the August count significantly. Traders are monitoring any final NWS updates through month-end for potential adjustments to the exact warning tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
81% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
81% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.Strong high-pressure ridging over the Southwest has sustained dangerously hot conditions across Phoenix, with National Weather Service Extreme Heat Warnings in effect for the majority of August 2026. Official alerts covered an earlier stretch through August 9 and have been repeatedly extended since mid-month, currently running through August 29 with afternoon highs frequently reaching 110–115°F and minimal overnight relief in the upper 80s to low 90s. These verified measurements and warning durations already place the monthly total well above the 10-day threshold, aligning with the 78.4% market-implied odds for “Yes.” A forecast pattern shift late in the week may ease temperatures into early September, yet it arrives too late to alter the August count significantly. Traders are monitoring any final NWS updates through month-end for potential adjustments to the exact warning tally.
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$388End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.Strong high-pressure ridging over the Southwest has sustained dangerously hot conditions across Phoenix, with National Weather Service Extreme Heat Warnings in effect for the majority of August 2026. Official alerts covered an earlier stretch through August 9 and have been repeatedly extended since mid-month, currently running through August 29 with afternoon highs frequently reaching 110–115°F and minimal overnight relief in the upper 80s to low 90s. These verified measurements and warning durations already place the monthly total well above the 10-day threshold, aligning with the 78.4% market-implied odds for “Yes.” A forecast pattern shift late in the week may ease temperatures into early September, yet it arrives too late to alter the August count significantly. Traders are monitoring any final NWS updates through month-end for potential adjustments to the exact warning tally.
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
Volume
$388End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong high-pressure ridging over the Southwest has sustained dangerously hot conditions across Phoenix, with National Weather Service Extreme Heat Warnings in effect for the majority of August 2026. Official alerts covered an earlier stretch through August 9 and have been repeatedly extended since mid-month, currently running through August 29 with afternoon highs frequently reaching 110–115°F and minimal overnight relief in the upper 80s to low 90s. These verified measurements and warning durations already place the monthly total well above the 10-day threshold, aligning with the 78.4% market-implied odds for “Yes.” A forecast pattern shift late in the week may ease temperatures into early September, yet it arrives too late to alter the August count significantly. Traders are monitoring any final NWS updates through month-end for potential adjustments to the exact warning tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions