**Hawaii’s extreme rarity of hurricane landfalls drives the 92% market-implied probability that none will occur before 2027.** Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record—Category 1 Dot on Kauai in 1959 and Category 4 Iniki on Kauai in 1992—with no others documented since reliable tracking began in 1950. The islands present a tiny target in the vast central Pacific, where typical subtropical high pressure, stronger wind shear, and cooler sea-surface temperatures east of the state inhibit intensification and favor westward steering that weakens systems before arrival. Recent activity reinforces this outlook. Hurricane Lala in mid-August 2026 approached the Big Island as a strengthening system but ultimately avoided landfall, consistent with the pattern that most central Pacific tropical cyclones weaken to tropical-storm strength or less by the time they near the archipelago. With the 2026 season already past its August peak and only four months remaining until 2027, the window for a rare, direct hit is narrow. The consensus reflects traders’ assessment of climatological barriers and the short timeframe rather than any forecast guarantee. An unexpected late-season formation very close to the islands that maintains Category 1+ intensity on a precise northward track remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter outcomes, though historical analogs and current steering patterns make such an event unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
9% chance
$22,333 Vol.
$22,333 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$22,333 Vol.
$22,333 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.**Hawaii’s extreme rarity of hurricane landfalls drives the 92% market-implied probability that none will occur before 2027.** Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record—Category 1 Dot on Kauai in 1959 and Category 4 Iniki on Kauai in 1992—with no others documented since reliable tracking began in 1950. The islands present a tiny target in the vast central Pacific, where typical subtropical high pressure, stronger wind shear, and cooler sea-surface temperatures east of the state inhibit intensification and favor westward steering that weakens systems before arrival.
Recent activity reinforces this outlook. Hurricane Lala in mid-August 2026 approached the Big Island as a strengthening system but ultimately avoided landfall, consistent with the pattern that most central Pacific tropical cyclones weaken to tropical-storm strength or less by the time they near the archipelago. With the 2026 season already past its August peak and only four months remaining until 2027, the window for a rare, direct hit is narrow.
The consensus reflects traders’ assessment of climatological barriers and the short timeframe rather than any forecast guarantee. An unexpected late-season formation very close to the islands that maintains Category 1+ intensity on a precise northward track remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter outcomes, though historical analogs and current steering patterns make such an event unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$22,333End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.**Hawaii’s extreme rarity of hurricane landfalls drives the 92% market-implied probability that none will occur before 2027.** Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record—Category 1 Dot on Kauai in 1959 and Category 4 Iniki on Kauai in 1992—with no others documented since reliable tracking began in 1950. The islands present a tiny target in the vast central Pacific, where typical subtropical high pressure, stronger wind shear, and cooler sea-surface temperatures east of the state inhibit intensification and favor westward steering that weakens systems before arrival.
Recent activity reinforces this outlook. Hurricane Lala in mid-August 2026 approached the Big Island as a strengthening system but ultimately avoided landfall, consistent with the pattern that most central Pacific tropical cyclones weaken to tropical-storm strength or less by the time they near the archipelago. With the 2026 season already past its August peak and only four months remaining until 2027, the window for a rare, direct hit is narrow.
The consensus reflects traders’ assessment of climatological barriers and the short timeframe rather than any forecast guarantee. An unexpected late-season formation very close to the islands that maintains Category 1+ intensity on a precise northward track remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter outcomes, though historical analogs and current steering patterns make such an event unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
Volume
$22,333End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Hawaii’s extreme rarity of hurricane landfalls drives the 92% market-implied probability that none will occur before 2027.** Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record—Category 1 Dot on Kauai in 1959 and Category 4 Iniki on Kauai in 1992—with no others documented since reliable tracking began in 1950. The islands present a tiny target in the vast central Pacific, where typical subtropical high pressure, stronger wind shear, and cooler sea-surface temperatures east of the state inhibit intensification and favor westward steering that weakens systems before arrival. Recent activity reinforces this outlook. Hurricane Lala in mid-August 2026 approached the Big Island as a strengthening system but ultimately avoided landfall, consistent with the pattern that most central Pacific tropical cyclones weaken to tropical-storm strength or less by the time they near the archipelago. With the 2026 season already past its August peak and only four months remaining until 2027, the window for a rare, direct hit is narrow. The consensus reflects traders’ assessment of climatological barriers and the short timeframe rather than any forecast guarantee. An unexpected late-season formation very close to the islands that maintains Category 1+ intensity on a precise northward track remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter outcomes, though historical analogs and current steering patterns make such an event unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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