Traders assign a 97% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon for Saudel because official JTWC and JMA data confirm the system rapidly intensified to peak sustained winds of 110–115 knots in late August, meeting very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale before easterly shear and dry-air entrainment triggered steady weakening. As of the latest observations on August 26–27, the center was tracking westward over the East China Sea at roughly 75–85 knots, with consensus forecasts showing continued decay ahead of landfall in southern Zhejiang Province. This positioning aligns with historical analogs of Western Pacific typhoons that achieve Category 3–4 intensity before encountering unfavorable environmental conditions. The only realistic scenarios that could shift odds involve revised post-storm analysis reclassifying the peak or unexpected re-intensification, both considered low-probability given current model agreement and proximity to land.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 97.2%
Violent Typhoon 1.6%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
97%
Violent Typhoon
2%
Very Strong Typhoon 97.2%
Violent Typhoon 1.6%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$663 Vol.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$606 Vol.
<1%
Typhoon
$1,570 Vol.
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
$2,915 Vol.
97%
Violent Typhoon
$3,544 Vol.
2%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Traders assign a 97% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon for Saudel because official JTWC and JMA data confirm the system rapidly intensified to peak sustained winds of 110–115 knots in late August, meeting very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale before easterly shear and dry-air entrainment triggered steady weakening. As of the latest observations on August 26–27, the center was tracking westward over the East China Sea at roughly 75–85 knots, with consensus forecasts showing continued decay ahead of landfall in southern Zhejiang Province. This positioning aligns with historical analogs of Western Pacific typhoons that achieve Category 3–4 intensity before encountering unfavorable environmental conditions. The only realistic scenarios that could shift odds involve revised post-storm analysis reclassifying the peak or unexpected re-intensification, both considered low-probability given current model agreement and proximity to land.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$9,299End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Traders assign a 97% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon for Saudel because official JTWC and JMA data confirm the system rapidly intensified to peak sustained winds of 110–115 knots in late August, meeting very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale before easterly shear and dry-air entrainment triggered steady weakening. As of the latest observations on August 26–27, the center was tracking westward over the East China Sea at roughly 75–85 knots, with consensus forecasts showing continued decay ahead of landfall in southern Zhejiang Province. This positioning aligns with historical analogs of Western Pacific typhoons that achieve Category 3–4 intensity before encountering unfavorable environmental conditions. The only realistic scenarios that could shift odds involve revised post-storm analysis reclassifying the peak or unexpected re-intensification, both considered low-probability given current model agreement and proximity to land.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$9,299End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 97% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon for Saudel because official JTWC and JMA data confirm the system rapidly intensified to peak sustained winds of 110–115 knots in late August, meeting very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale before easterly shear and dry-air entrainment triggered steady weakening. As of the latest observations on August 26–27, the center was tracking westward over the East China Sea at roughly 75–85 knots, with consensus forecasts showing continued decay ahead of landfall in southern Zhejiang Province. This positioning aligns with historical analogs of Western Pacific typhoons that achieve Category 3–4 intensity before encountering unfavorable environmental conditions. The only realistic scenarios that could shift odds involve revised post-storm analysis reclassifying the peak or unexpected re-intensification, both considered low-probability given current model agreement and proximity to land.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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