**Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate Toronto’s overnight low into August 30 will likely fall in the 19–20°C range, aligning with the market’s two leading outcomes at 27.5% each.** Incoming moisture and increasing cloud cover ahead of showers are limiting radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures higher than typical late-August clear-night values near 14–16°C. Southerly to southwesterly flow is advecting milder, more humid air, while any breaks in cloud or lighter winds could allow brief dips toward 17–18°C. Conversely, persistent overcast skies or light rain would hold readings near or above 21°C. These variables—cloud fraction, precipitation timing, and boundary-layer moisture—create the tight clustering of probabilities across 16–22°C, with lower odds on extremes as short-range guidance converges on a mild, unsettled night. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 30?
19°C 28%
20°C 28%
16°C 25%
17°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
23%
15°C
20%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
28%
20°C
28%
21°C
25%
22°C
25%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
23%
19°C 28%
20°C 28%
16°C 25%
17°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
28%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$0 Vol.
25%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate Toronto’s overnight low into August 30 will likely fall in the 19–20°C range, aligning with the market’s two leading outcomes at 27.5% each.**
Incoming moisture and increasing cloud cover ahead of showers are limiting radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures higher than typical late-August clear-night values near 14–16°C. Southerly to southwesterly flow is advecting milder, more humid air, while any breaks in cloud or lighter winds could allow brief dips toward 17–18°C. Conversely, persistent overcast skies or light rain would hold readings near or above 21°C.
These variables—cloud fraction, precipitation timing, and boundary-layer moisture—create the tight clustering of probabilities across 16–22°C, with lower odds on extremes as short-range guidance converges on a mild, unsettled night. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate Toronto’s overnight low into August 30 will likely fall in the 19–20°C range, aligning with the market’s two leading outcomes at 27.5% each.**
Incoming moisture and increasing cloud cover ahead of showers are limiting radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures higher than typical late-August clear-night values near 14–16°C. Southerly to southwesterly flow is advecting milder, more humid air, while any breaks in cloud or lighter winds could allow brief dips toward 17–18°C. Conversely, persistent overcast skies or light rain would hold readings near or above 21°C.
These variables—cloud fraction, precipitation timing, and boundary-layer moisture—create the tight clustering of probabilities across 16–22°C, with lower odds on extremes as short-range guidance converges on a mild, unsettled night. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate Toronto’s overnight low into August 30 will likely fall in the 19–20°C range, aligning with the market’s two leading outcomes at 27.5% each.** Incoming moisture and increasing cloud cover ahead of showers are limiting radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures higher than typical late-August clear-night values near 14–16°C. Southerly to southwesterly flow is advecting milder, more humid air, while any breaks in cloud or lighter winds could allow brief dips toward 17–18°C. Conversely, persistent overcast skies or light rain would hold readings near or above 21°C. These variables—cloud fraction, precipitation timing, and boundary-layer moisture—create the tight clustering of probabilities across 16–22°C, with lower odds on extremes as short-range guidance converges on a mild, unsettled night. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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