Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a warming trend over Chicago on August 30 driven by southerly flow advecting warmer, more humid air under partly sunny skies, with highs expected in the mid-to-upper 80s. Model runs show modest spread in peak temperatures tied to variable cloud cover, wind speeds around 10-15 mph, and any residual morning moisture that could suppress insolation. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 82-89°F, as small shifts in timing or coverage could easily differentiate an 84-85°F versus 86-87°F outcome relative to the 81°F climatological average. Updated model guidance and afternoon observations will clarify resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
84-85°F 32%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 32%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
$127 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$149 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$307 Vol.
4%
82-83°F
$391 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$214 Vol.
32%
86-87°F
$283 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$1,024 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$237 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$52 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$137 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a warming trend over Chicago on August 30 driven by southerly flow advecting warmer, more humid air under partly sunny skies, with highs expected in the mid-to-upper 80s. Model runs show modest spread in peak temperatures tied to variable cloud cover, wind speeds around 10-15 mph, and any residual morning moisture that could suppress insolation. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 82-89°F, as small shifts in timing or coverage could easily differentiate an 84-85°F versus 86-87°F outcome relative to the 81°F climatological average. Updated model guidance and afternoon observations will clarify resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,273End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a warming trend over Chicago on August 30 driven by southerly flow advecting warmer, more humid air under partly sunny skies, with highs expected in the mid-to-upper 80s. Model runs show modest spread in peak temperatures tied to variable cloud cover, wind speeds around 10-15 mph, and any residual morning moisture that could suppress insolation. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 82-89°F, as small shifts in timing or coverage could easily differentiate an 84-85°F versus 86-87°F outcome relative to the 81°F climatological average. Updated model guidance and afternoon observations will clarify resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,273End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a warming trend over Chicago on August 30 driven by southerly flow advecting warmer, more humid air under partly sunny skies, with highs expected in the mid-to-upper 80s. Model runs show modest spread in peak temperatures tied to variable cloud cover, wind speeds around 10-15 mph, and any residual morning moisture that could suppress insolation. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 82-89°F, as small shifts in timing or coverage could easily differentiate an 84-85°F versus 86-87°F outcome relative to the 81°F climatological average. Updated model guidance and afternoon observations will clarify resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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