Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts indicate Chicago's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warm, moist air mass with dew points in the mid-60s that limits radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops, while Lake Michigan's moderating influence keeps urban readings elevated relative to historical August 30 averages near 64°F. Trader consensus around the 72–73°F bin reflects this model agreement, with spreads across adjacent ranges capturing remaining uncertainty in exact minimum timing, localized lake-effect variations, and any late forecast adjustments from updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
72-73°F 38%
63°F or below 29%
70-71°F 29%
82°F or higher 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
29%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
26%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
29%
72-73°F
38%
74-75°F
26%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
16%
82°F or higher
28%
72-73°F 38%
63°F or below 29%
70-71°F 29%
82°F or higher 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Vol.
29%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
26%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
29%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
38%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
26%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
25%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
21%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
16%
82°F or higher
$5 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts indicate Chicago's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warm, moist air mass with dew points in the mid-60s that limits radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops, while Lake Michigan's moderating influence keeps urban readings elevated relative to historical August 30 averages near 64°F. Trader consensus around the 72–73°F bin reflects this model agreement, with spreads across adjacent ranges capturing remaining uncertainty in exact minimum timing, localized lake-effect variations, and any late forecast adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts indicate Chicago's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warm, moist air mass with dew points in the mid-60s that limits radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops, while Lake Michigan's moderating influence keeps urban readings elevated relative to historical August 30 averages near 64°F. Trader consensus around the 72–73°F bin reflects this model agreement, with spreads across adjacent ranges capturing remaining uncertainty in exact minimum timing, localized lake-effect variations, and any late forecast adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts indicate Chicago's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warm, moist air mass with dew points in the mid-60s that limits radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops, while Lake Michigan's moderating influence keeps urban readings elevated relative to historical August 30 averages near 64°F. Trader consensus around the 72–73°F bin reflects this model agreement, with spreads across adjacent ranges capturing remaining uncertainty in exact minimum timing, localized lake-effect variations, and any late forecast adjustments from updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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