**Persistent subtropical high pressure has sustained extreme heat across Chongqing through late August, with recent observed highs reaching 39–40.7°C on August 26 amid mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Observatory for August 28 project daytime maxima of 22–38°C citywide and 28–37°C in central districts under continued high-pressure influence, tempered by scattered showers or thunderstorms tied to residual typhoon circulation (e.g., from systems like “Zitan”). Model consensus points to afternoon peak heating before evening rain intensifies, with some international outlooks showing 34–36.8°C and others near 37–38°C depending on cloud cover timing and precipitation onset. This uncertainty—driven by variable moisture advection, diurnal heating rates, and exact rain arrival—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 36–37°C (over 55% combined) rather than favoring a single outcome. Historical August climatology for the region averages lower (~31°C), underscoring how the current heat dome elevates the baseline while incoming weather systems introduce downside risk to the daily maximum. Updated model runs and local observatory briefings on the 27th–28th will likely refine these contours before resolution.