Recent model runs point to daytime highs of 24–25°C in Mexico City on August 30 as the dominant driver behind the closely matched market odds, reflecting typical late-summer conditions during Mexico’s rainy season. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southeasterly flow are limiting solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near seasonal norms rather than allowing excursions above 26°C. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and local forecasts shows consensus around 22–25°C, with variability tied to the timing and intensity of afternoon convection. Updated ensemble runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
25°C 40%
24°C 37%
23°C 13%
26°C or higher 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
3%
18°C
4%
19°C
3%
20°C
3%
21°C
8%
22°C
9%
23°C
13%
24°C
37%
25°C
40%
26°C or higher
13%
25°C 40%
24°C 37%
23°C 13%
26°C or higher 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$4 Vol.
3%
18°C
$15 Vol.
4%
19°C
$3 Vol.
3%
20°C
$3 Vol.
3%
21°C
$21 Vol.
8%
22°C
$0 Vol.
9%
23°C
$5 Vol.
13%
24°C
$9 Vol.
37%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C or higher
$11 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs point to daytime highs of 24–25°C in Mexico City on August 30 as the dominant driver behind the closely matched market odds, reflecting typical late-summer conditions during Mexico’s rainy season. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southeasterly flow are limiting solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near seasonal norms rather than allowing excursions above 26°C. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and local forecasts shows consensus around 22–25°C, with variability tied to the timing and intensity of afternoon convection. Updated ensemble runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs point to daytime highs of 24–25°C in Mexico City on August 30 as the dominant driver behind the closely matched market odds, reflecting typical late-summer conditions during Mexico’s rainy season. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southeasterly flow are limiting solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near seasonal norms rather than allowing excursions above 26°C. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and local forecasts shows consensus around 22–25°C, with variability tied to the timing and intensity of afternoon convection. Updated ensemble runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs point to daytime highs of 24–25°C in Mexico City on August 30 as the dominant driver behind the closely matched market odds, reflecting typical late-summer conditions during Mexico’s rainy season. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southeasterly flow are limiting solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near seasonal norms rather than allowing excursions above 26°C. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and local forecasts shows consensus around 22–25°C, with variability tied to the timing and intensity of afternoon convection. Updated ensemble runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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