Short-range forecast uncertainty for Mexico City’s high-elevation Valley of Mexico is driving the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14 °C for the August 30 minimum. Ensemble guidance from global models shows modest differences in predicted nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture tied to the North American monsoon’s lingering influence, which modulates radiative cooling rates. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor readings near or below 12 °C, while increased low-level moisture or urban heat retention could keep lows closer to 14 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical overnight minima near 11–13 °C, providing a baseline against which traders are weighing the latest model runs ahead of the final observational window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
6°C or below 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
25%
7°C
10%
8°C
10%
9°C
25%
10°C
25%
11°C
25%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
25%
16°C or higher
24%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
6°C or below 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
$15 Vol.
25%
7°C
$0 Vol.
10%
8°C
$0 Vol.
10%
9°C
$0 Vol.
25%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecast uncertainty for Mexico City’s high-elevation Valley of Mexico is driving the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14 °C for the August 30 minimum. Ensemble guidance from global models shows modest differences in predicted nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture tied to the North American monsoon’s lingering influence, which modulates radiative cooling rates. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor readings near or below 12 °C, while increased low-level moisture or urban heat retention could keep lows closer to 14 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical overnight minima near 11–13 °C, providing a baseline against which traders are weighing the latest model runs ahead of the final observational window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecast uncertainty for Mexico City’s high-elevation Valley of Mexico is driving the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14 °C for the August 30 minimum. Ensemble guidance from global models shows modest differences in predicted nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture tied to the North American monsoon’s lingering influence, which modulates radiative cooling rates. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor readings near or below 12 °C, while increased low-level moisture or urban heat retention could keep lows closer to 14 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical overnight minima near 11–13 °C, providing a baseline against which traders are weighing the latest model runs ahead of the final observational window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range forecast uncertainty for Mexico City’s high-elevation Valley of Mexico is driving the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14 °C for the August 30 minimum. Ensemble guidance from global models shows modest differences in predicted nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture tied to the North American monsoon’s lingering influence, which modulates radiative cooling rates. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor readings near or below 12 °C, while increased low-level moisture or urban heat retention could keep lows closer to 14 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical overnight minima near 11–13 °C, providing a baseline against which traders are weighing the latest model runs ahead of the final observational window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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