Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including ECMWF-influenced runs and GFS show broad consensus for Warsaw reaching a daily maximum of 26–27°C on August 30, driven by building high pressure that favors southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with negligible precipitation risk. Saturday’s cooler, showery pattern gives way to these warmer conditions as a ridge strengthens, limiting cloud cover and allowing greater daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around this range, with only limited upside potential for 28°C if insolation exceeds expectations; lower outcomes near 25°C would require unexpected persistent cloud or a frontal shift not currently indicated. Traders have aligned implied probabilities closely with this model consensus, reflecting the typical skill of short-range forecasts two days ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
27°C 44%
26°C 30%
28°C 15%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
9%
25°C
8%
26°C
30%
27°C
44%
28°C
15%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 44%
26°C 30%
28°C 15%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
$33 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C
$7 Vol.
30%
27°C
$52 Vol.
44%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including ECMWF-influenced runs and GFS show broad consensus for Warsaw reaching a daily maximum of 26–27°C on August 30, driven by building high pressure that favors southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with negligible precipitation risk. Saturday’s cooler, showery pattern gives way to these warmer conditions as a ridge strengthens, limiting cloud cover and allowing greater daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around this range, with only limited upside potential for 28°C if insolation exceeds expectations; lower outcomes near 25°C would require unexpected persistent cloud or a frontal shift not currently indicated. Traders have aligned implied probabilities closely with this model consensus, reflecting the typical skill of short-range forecasts two days ahead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$94End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including ECMWF-influenced runs and GFS show broad consensus for Warsaw reaching a daily maximum of 26–27°C on August 30, driven by building high pressure that favors southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with negligible precipitation risk. Saturday’s cooler, showery pattern gives way to these warmer conditions as a ridge strengthens, limiting cloud cover and allowing greater daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around this range, with only limited upside potential for 28°C if insolation exceeds expectations; lower outcomes near 25°C would require unexpected persistent cloud or a frontal shift not currently indicated. Traders have aligned implied probabilities closely with this model consensus, reflecting the typical skill of short-range forecasts two days ahead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$94End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including ECMWF-influenced runs and GFS show broad consensus for Warsaw reaching a daily maximum of 26–27°C on August 30, driven by building high pressure that favors southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with negligible precipitation risk. Saturday’s cooler, showery pattern gives way to these warmer conditions as a ridge strengthens, limiting cloud cover and allowing greater daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around this range, with only limited upside potential for 28°C if insolation exceeds expectations; lower outcomes near 25°C would require unexpected persistent cloud or a frontal shift not currently indicated. Traders have aligned implied probabilities closely with this model consensus, reflecting the typical skill of short-range forecasts two days ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions