Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 30 near 16–18°C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors partly clear skies and light southwesterly flow. Radiative cooling will drive the lowest reading after sunset, modulated by cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing from 5–10 m/s winds, and dew points near 12–14°C that limit sharp drops. Recent IMGW guidance highlights a shift from cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week toward warmer advection, yet model spread in exact cloud persistence and frontal timing sustains near-even market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. New 00z and 12z runs will clarify whether subsidence strengthens or scattered showers arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
9°C or below 94%
19°C or higher 94%
10°C 87%
11°C 87%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
94%
10°C
87%
11°C
87%
12°C
44%
13°C
44%
14°C
87%
15°C
87%
16°C
87%
17°C
87%
18°C
86%
19°C or higher
94%
9°C or below 94%
19°C or higher 94%
10°C 87%
11°C 87%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
10°C
$0 Vol.
87%
11°C
$0 Vol.
87%
12°C
$0 Vol.
44%
13°C
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
87%
15°C
$0 Vol.
87%
16°C
$0 Vol.
87%
17°C
$0 Vol.
87%
18°C
$0 Vol.
86%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 30 near 16–18°C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors partly clear skies and light southwesterly flow. Radiative cooling will drive the lowest reading after sunset, modulated by cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing from 5–10 m/s winds, and dew points near 12–14°C that limit sharp drops. Recent IMGW guidance highlights a shift from cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week toward warmer advection, yet model spread in exact cloud persistence and frontal timing sustains near-even market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. New 00z and 12z runs will clarify whether subsidence strengthens or scattered showers arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 30 near 16–18°C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors partly clear skies and light southwesterly flow. Radiative cooling will drive the lowest reading after sunset, modulated by cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing from 5–10 m/s winds, and dew points near 12–14°C that limit sharp drops. Recent IMGW guidance highlights a shift from cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week toward warmer advection, yet model spread in exact cloud persistence and frontal timing sustains near-even market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. New 00z and 12z runs will clarify whether subsidence strengthens or scattered showers arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 30 near 16–18°C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors partly clear skies and light southwesterly flow. Radiative cooling will drive the lowest reading after sunset, modulated by cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing from 5–10 m/s winds, and dew points near 12–14°C that limit sharp drops. Recent IMGW guidance highlights a shift from cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week toward warmer advection, yet model spread in exact cloud persistence and frontal timing sustains near-even market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. New 00z and 12z runs will clarify whether subsidence strengthens or scattered showers arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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