Recent weather model consensus from ECMWF, ICON, and GFS runs indicates a high near 25–26°C in Munich on August 30 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly flow advecting milder air after earlier frontal activity. This positions 26–28°C as favored outcomes, with ensemble spreads and local urban heat effects supporting slight upside potential above the 22.6°C climatological average. Traders appear to weight recent model guidance and observed warming trends, assigning 39.5% implied probability to 27°C as the mode. Updated forecasts and DWD observations on the 29th–30th will refine resolution near the 30–31°C tail or lower 25°C scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 30?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 30?
27°C 40%
26°C 25%
28°C 19%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
25%
27°C
40%
28°C
19%
29°C
4%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 40%
26°C 25%
28°C 19%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
$127 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$8 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$42 Vol.
7%
26°C
$381 Vol.
25%
27°C
$302 Vol.
40%
28°C
$443 Vol.
19%
29°C
$174 Vol.
4%
30°C
$77 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$77 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from ECMWF, ICON, and GFS runs indicates a high near 25–26°C in Munich on August 30 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly flow advecting milder air after earlier frontal activity. This positions 26–28°C as favored outcomes, with ensemble spreads and local urban heat effects supporting slight upside potential above the 22.6°C climatological average. Traders appear to weight recent model guidance and observed warming trends, assigning 39.5% implied probability to 27°C as the mode. Updated forecasts and DWD observations on the 29th–30th will refine resolution near the 30–31°C tail or lower 25°C scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,632End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from ECMWF, ICON, and GFS runs indicates a high near 25–26°C in Munich on August 30 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly flow advecting milder air after earlier frontal activity. This positions 26–28°C as favored outcomes, with ensemble spreads and local urban heat effects supporting slight upside potential above the 22.6°C climatological average. Traders appear to weight recent model guidance and observed warming trends, assigning 39.5% implied probability to 27°C as the mode. Updated forecasts and DWD observations on the 29th–30th will refine resolution near the 30–31°C tail or lower 25°C scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,632End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from ECMWF, ICON, and GFS runs indicates a high near 25–26°C in Munich on August 30 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly flow advecting milder air after earlier frontal activity. This positions 26–28°C as favored outcomes, with ensemble spreads and local urban heat effects supporting slight upside potential above the 22.6°C climatological average. Traders appear to weight recent model guidance and observed warming trends, assigning 39.5% implied probability to 27°C as the mode. Updated forecasts and DWD observations on the 29th–30th will refine resolution near the 30–31°C tail or lower 25°C scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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