**Current ensemble forecasts place the highest temperature on August 30 in the 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** Persistent southwesterly monsoon flow and a broad low-pressure trough are expected to maintain humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Hong Kong Observatory stations recorded maxima of 31–33°C on August 28 amid very hot weather, but models indicate modest cooling by Sunday as moisture and convective activity increase. This setup matches August climatology (mean daily maximum ~31.3°C) while the spread in guidance—some runs favoring 30°C, others 31–32°C under variable sunshine—explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and official HKO briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 30?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 30?
30°C 31%
31°C 25%
29°C 19%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
10%
29°C
19%
30°C
31%
31°C
25%
32°C
14%
33°C
4%
34°C
5%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 31%
31°C 25%
29°C 19%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
10%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$72 Vol.
31%
31°C
$0 Vol.
25%
32°C
$43 Vol.
14%
33°C
$25 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
5%
35°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$121 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current ensemble forecasts place the highest temperature on August 30 in the 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** Persistent southwesterly monsoon flow and a broad low-pressure trough are expected to maintain humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Hong Kong Observatory stations recorded maxima of 31–33°C on August 28 amid very hot weather, but models indicate modest cooling by Sunday as moisture and convective activity increase. This setup matches August climatology (mean daily maximum ~31.3°C) while the spread in guidance—some runs favoring 30°C, others 31–32°C under variable sunshine—explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and official HKO briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$538End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current ensemble forecasts place the highest temperature on August 30 in the 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** Persistent southwesterly monsoon flow and a broad low-pressure trough are expected to maintain humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Hong Kong Observatory stations recorded maxima of 31–33°C on August 28 amid very hot weather, but models indicate modest cooling by Sunday as moisture and convective activity increase. This setup matches August climatology (mean daily maximum ~31.3°C) while the spread in guidance—some runs favoring 30°C, others 31–32°C under variable sunshine—explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and official HKO briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$538End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current ensemble forecasts place the highest temperature on August 30 in the 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** Persistent southwesterly monsoon flow and a broad low-pressure trough are expected to maintain humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Hong Kong Observatory stations recorded maxima of 31–33°C on August 28 amid very hot weather, but models indicate modest cooling by Sunday as moisture and convective activity increase. This setup matches August climatology (mean daily maximum ~31.3°C) while the spread in guidance—some runs favoring 30°C, others 31–32°C under variable sunshine—explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and official HKO briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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