**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and moderate southwesterly winds are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam tightly clustered around 21–22°C for August 30, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes.** Forecasts from multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF guidance) show a period of unsettled weather driven by a broad low-pressure influence and frontal activity, with daytime highs projected at 20–22°C amid frequent showers or light rain. This pattern suppresses solar heating compared to clearer conditions that might allow peaks near or above 23°C. Historical late-August averages for Amsterdam hover near 22°C, but the current setup—with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius, high humidity, and winds around 15–25 km/h—favors the lower end of the typical range. Traders appear to weigh the slight edge toward 22°C based on afternoon timing of any breaks in cloud cover versus the higher probability of rain moderating the peak, reflected in the 46.5% and 40.5% implied probabilities. Model consensus shows low likelihood of exceeding 23°C under these conditions, while colder outliers remain improbable given the mild air mass in place. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
22°C 46%
21°C 39%
23°C 9%
20°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
39%
22°C
46%
23°C
9%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
22°C 46%
21°C 39%
23°C 9%
20°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
$84 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$21 Vol.
1%
19°C
$53 Vol.
2%
20°C
$274 Vol.
5%
21°C
$104 Vol.
39%
22°C
$607 Vol.
46%
23°C
$64 Vol.
9%
24°C
$52 Vol.
2%
25°C
$3 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$31 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and moderate southwesterly winds are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam tightly clustered around 21–22°C for August 30, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes.**
Forecasts from multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF guidance) show a period of unsettled weather driven by a broad low-pressure influence and frontal activity, with daytime highs projected at 20–22°C amid frequent showers or light rain. This pattern suppresses solar heating compared to clearer conditions that might allow peaks near or above 23°C. Historical late-August averages for Amsterdam hover near 22°C, but the current setup—with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius, high humidity, and winds around 15–25 km/h—favors the lower end of the typical range.
Traders appear to weigh the slight edge toward 22°C based on afternoon timing of any breaks in cloud cover versus the higher probability of rain moderating the peak, reflected in the 46.5% and 40.5% implied probabilities. Model consensus shows low likelihood of exceeding 23°C under these conditions, while colder outliers remain improbable given the mild air mass in place. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,324End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and moderate southwesterly winds are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam tightly clustered around 21–22°C for August 30, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes.**
Forecasts from multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF guidance) show a period of unsettled weather driven by a broad low-pressure influence and frontal activity, with daytime highs projected at 20–22°C amid frequent showers or light rain. This pattern suppresses solar heating compared to clearer conditions that might allow peaks near or above 23°C. Historical late-August averages for Amsterdam hover near 22°C, but the current setup—with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius, high humidity, and winds around 15–25 km/h—favors the lower end of the typical range.
Traders appear to weigh the slight edge toward 22°C based on afternoon timing of any breaks in cloud cover versus the higher probability of rain moderating the peak, reflected in the 46.5% and 40.5% implied probabilities. Model consensus shows low likelihood of exceeding 23°C under these conditions, while colder outliers remain improbable given the mild air mass in place. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,324End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and moderate southwesterly winds are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam tightly clustered around 21–22°C for August 30, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes.** Forecasts from multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF guidance) show a period of unsettled weather driven by a broad low-pressure influence and frontal activity, with daytime highs projected at 20–22°C amid frequent showers or light rain. This pattern suppresses solar heating compared to clearer conditions that might allow peaks near or above 23°C. Historical late-August averages for Amsterdam hover near 22°C, but the current setup—with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius, high humidity, and winds around 15–25 km/h—favors the lower end of the typical range. Traders appear to weigh the slight edge toward 22°C based on afternoon timing of any breaks in cloud cover versus the higher probability of rain moderating the peak, reflected in the 46.5% and 40.5% implied probabilities. Model consensus shows low likelihood of exceeding 23°C under these conditions, while colder outliers remain improbable given the mild air mass in place. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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