Official forecasts from PAGASA and supporting models indicate maximum temperatures in Manila of 28–30 °C on August 30, shaped by persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an enhanced southwest monsoon interacting with a nearby low-pressure area. This setup favors the market's leading outcomes at 30 °C and 31 °C, as widespread convection and high humidity limit daytime heating despite the ongoing moderate El Niño, which usually promotes drier conditions. Recent advisories note 50–200 mm of rain expected across Luzon, further capping peaks below seasonal averages near 31 °C; updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through the weekend will refine resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 30?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 30?
30°C 37%
31°C 26%
29°C 18%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
18%
30°C
37%
31°C
26%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 37%
31°C 26%
29°C 18%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
24°C or below
$69 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$160 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$37 Vol.
4%
28°C
$189 Vol.
4%
29°C
$1,177 Vol.
18%
30°C
$82 Vol.
37%
31°C
$73 Vol.
26%
32°C
$270 Vol.
5%
33°C
$3 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$84 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA and supporting models indicate maximum temperatures in Manila of 28–30 °C on August 30, shaped by persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an enhanced southwest monsoon interacting with a nearby low-pressure area. This setup favors the market's leading outcomes at 30 °C and 31 °C, as widespread convection and high humidity limit daytime heating despite the ongoing moderate El Niño, which usually promotes drier conditions. Recent advisories note 50–200 mm of rain expected across Luzon, further capping peaks below seasonal averages near 31 °C; updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through the weekend will refine resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,224End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA and supporting models indicate maximum temperatures in Manila of 28–30 °C on August 30, shaped by persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an enhanced southwest monsoon interacting with a nearby low-pressure area. This setup favors the market's leading outcomes at 30 °C and 31 °C, as widespread convection and high humidity limit daytime heating despite the ongoing moderate El Niño, which usually promotes drier conditions. Recent advisories note 50–200 mm of rain expected across Luzon, further capping peaks below seasonal averages near 31 °C; updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through the weekend will refine resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,224End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from PAGASA and supporting models indicate maximum temperatures in Manila of 28–30 °C on August 30, shaped by persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an enhanced southwest monsoon interacting with a nearby low-pressure area. This setup favors the market's leading outcomes at 30 °C and 31 °C, as widespread convection and high humidity limit daytime heating despite the ongoing moderate El Niño, which usually promotes drier conditions. Recent advisories note 50–200 mm of rain expected across Luzon, further capping peaks below seasonal averages near 31 °C; updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through the weekend will refine resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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