Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions and associated cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds are the dominant factors moderating overnight temperatures in Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate minimums most likely in the 25–28 °C range for 30 August, with reduced radiative cooling from extensive cloudiness and moisture limiting drops below 24 °C. The closely matched market odds around 22–28 °C reflect residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–2 °C, while the elevated probability assigned to 21 °C or below captures the tail risk of stronger monsoon surges or heavier overnight rain. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 30?
31°C or higher 69%
21°C or below 66%
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
66%
22°C
40%
23°C
47%
24°C
49%
25°C
50%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
49%
31°C or higher
69%
31°C or higher 69%
21°C or below 66%
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
66%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
47%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
49%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions and associated cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds are the dominant factors moderating overnight temperatures in Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate minimums most likely in the 25–28 °C range for 30 August, with reduced radiative cooling from extensive cloudiness and moisture limiting drops below 24 °C. The closely matched market odds around 22–28 °C reflect residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–2 °C, while the elevated probability assigned to 21 °C or below captures the tail risk of stronger monsoon surges or heavier overnight rain. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions and associated cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds are the dominant factors moderating overnight temperatures in Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate minimums most likely in the 25–28 °C range for 30 August, with reduced radiative cooling from extensive cloudiness and moisture limiting drops below 24 °C. The closely matched market odds around 22–28 °C reflect residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–2 °C, while the elevated probability assigned to 21 °C or below captures the tail risk of stronger monsoon surges or heavier overnight rain. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions and associated cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds are the dominant factors moderating overnight temperatures in Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate minimums most likely in the 25–28 °C range for 30 August, with reduced radiative cooling from extensive cloudiness and moisture limiting drops below 24 °C. The closely matched market odds around 22–28 °C reflect residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–2 °C, while the elevated probability assigned to 21 °C or below captures the tail risk of stronger monsoon surges or heavier overnight rain. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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