Latest forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 31–32°C on August 28, reflecting the dominant Pacific high-pressure ridge that has sustained above-normal temperatures through late summer. Persistent warm, humid southerly flow favors afternoon maxima near the upper end of recent daily observations (32–35°C), yet increasing cloud cover and isolated showers—driven by a weakening ridge and approaching frontal influence—introduce uncertainty that caps or elevates readings by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and variable insolation under partly cloudy skies further differentiate the narrow 30–33°C band, with model spread on precipitation timing keeping trader probabilities clustered around these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
31°C 35%
32°C 27%
30°C 20%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
20%
31°C
35%
32°C
27%
33°C
14%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 35%
32°C 27%
30°C 20%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$1,866 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$81 Vol.
1%
28°C
$357 Vol.
3%
29°C
$332 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,418 Vol.
20%
31°C
$142 Vol.
35%
32°C
$602 Vol.
27%
33°C
$886 Vol.
14%
34°C
$149 Vol.
3%
35°C
$208 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$540 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 31–32°C on August 28, reflecting the dominant Pacific high-pressure ridge that has sustained above-normal temperatures through late summer. Persistent warm, humid southerly flow favors afternoon maxima near the upper end of recent daily observations (32–35°C), yet increasing cloud cover and isolated showers—driven by a weakening ridge and approaching frontal influence—introduce uncertainty that caps or elevates readings by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and variable insolation under partly cloudy skies further differentiate the narrow 30–33°C band, with model spread on precipitation timing keeping trader probabilities clustered around these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,581End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 31–32°C on August 28, reflecting the dominant Pacific high-pressure ridge that has sustained above-normal temperatures through late summer. Persistent warm, humid southerly flow favors afternoon maxima near the upper end of recent daily observations (32–35°C), yet increasing cloud cover and isolated showers—driven by a weakening ridge and approaching frontal influence—introduce uncertainty that caps or elevates readings by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and variable insolation under partly cloudy skies further differentiate the narrow 30–33°C band, with model spread on precipitation timing keeping trader probabilities clustered around these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,581End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 31–32°C on August 28, reflecting the dominant Pacific high-pressure ridge that has sustained above-normal temperatures through late summer. Persistent warm, humid southerly flow favors afternoon maxima near the upper end of recent daily observations (32–35°C), yet increasing cloud cover and isolated showers—driven by a weakening ridge and approaching frontal influence—introduce uncertainty that caps or elevates readings by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and variable insolation under partly cloudy skies further differentiate the narrow 30–33°C band, with model spread on precipitation timing keeping trader probabilities clustered around these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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