Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 31 indicate highs potentially reaching 31–34°C amid a strengthening hot, dry air mass driving the current late-August warm anomaly, well above the historical August average maximum of 22–25°C. An approaching cold front is projected to shift steering patterns and introduce cooler maritime air, with temperatures dropping sharply after August 31 as rain develops. Model consensus highlights this transition timing, with wind shifts from northwest to northeast and increasing cloud cover moderating peak readings. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 29°C or below, incorporates this forecast uncertainty around the exact frontal passage and any local urban heat effects at the city’s ~800 m elevation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
29°C or below 41%
30°C 17%
31°C 14%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
41%
30°C
17%
31°C
14%
32°C
11%
33°C
8%
34°C
3%
35°C
4%
36°C
<1%
37°C
3%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
29°C or below 41%
30°C 17%
31°C 14%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$1,015 Vol.
41%
30°C
$197 Vol.
17%
31°C
$131 Vol.
14%
32°C
$83 Vol.
11%
33°C
$371 Vol.
8%
34°C
$119 Vol.
3%
35°C
$42 Vol.
4%
36°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$10 Vol.
3%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 31 indicate highs potentially reaching 31–34°C amid a strengthening hot, dry air mass driving the current late-August warm anomaly, well above the historical August average maximum of 22–25°C. An approaching cold front is projected to shift steering patterns and introduce cooler maritime air, with temperatures dropping sharply after August 31 as rain develops. Model consensus highlights this transition timing, with wind shifts from northwest to northeast and increasing cloud cover moderating peak readings. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 29°C or below, incorporates this forecast uncertainty around the exact frontal passage and any local urban heat effects at the city’s ~800 m elevation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,008End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 31 indicate highs potentially reaching 31–34°C amid a strengthening hot, dry air mass driving the current late-August warm anomaly, well above the historical August average maximum of 22–25°C. An approaching cold front is projected to shift steering patterns and introduce cooler maritime air, with temperatures dropping sharply after August 31 as rain develops. Model consensus highlights this transition timing, with wind shifts from northwest to northeast and increasing cloud cover moderating peak readings. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 29°C or below, incorporates this forecast uncertainty around the exact frontal passage and any local urban heat effects at the city’s ~800 m elevation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,008End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 31 indicate highs potentially reaching 31–34°C amid a strengthening hot, dry air mass driving the current late-August warm anomaly, well above the historical August average maximum of 22–25°C. An approaching cold front is projected to shift steering patterns and introduce cooler maritime air, with temperatures dropping sharply after August 31 as rain develops. Model consensus highlights this transition timing, with wind shifts from northwest to northeast and increasing cloud cover moderating peak readings. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 29°C or below, incorporates this forecast uncertainty around the exact frontal passage and any local urban heat effects at the city’s ~800 m elevation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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