Strong El Niño conditions intensifying across the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a historic peak this fall and winter, represent the dominant factor shaping 2026 U.S. tornado probabilities. Official Storm Prediction Center data show a preliminary total of 1,350 tornadoes through mid-August, driven by an active spring and summer with notable outbreaks and record counts in states like Illinois. While El Niño typically reduces severe weather frequency and intensity in the latter half of the year by altering jet stream patterns and atmospheric instability, the elevated year-to-date pace keeps the market heavily favoring totals above 1,250. Traders are monitoring upcoming SPC monthly updates and any shifts in forecast model consensus on El Niño strength, as further suppression could narrow the path to lower bins but appears unlikely to drop below recent climatological ranges given current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 87%
1200–1249 7.2%
1150–1199 5.5%
1100–1149 3.0%
$81,998 Vol.
$81,998 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
87%
1250+ 87%
1200–1249 7.2%
1150–1199 5.5%
1100–1149 3.0%
$81,998 Vol.
$81,998 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
$23,720 Vol.
1%
950–999
$3,618 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
6%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
7%
1250+
$18,789 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions intensifying across the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a historic peak this fall and winter, represent the dominant factor shaping 2026 U.S. tornado probabilities. Official Storm Prediction Center data show a preliminary total of 1,350 tornadoes through mid-August, driven by an active spring and summer with notable outbreaks and record counts in states like Illinois. While El Niño typically reduces severe weather frequency and intensity in the latter half of the year by altering jet stream patterns and atmospheric instability, the elevated year-to-date pace keeps the market heavily favoring totals above 1,250. Traders are monitoring upcoming SPC monthly updates and any shifts in forecast model consensus on El Niño strength, as further suppression could narrow the path to lower bins but appears unlikely to drop below recent climatological ranges given current momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$81,998End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions intensifying across the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a historic peak this fall and winter, represent the dominant factor shaping 2026 U.S. tornado probabilities. Official Storm Prediction Center data show a preliminary total of 1,350 tornadoes through mid-August, driven by an active spring and summer with notable outbreaks and record counts in states like Illinois. While El Niño typically reduces severe weather frequency and intensity in the latter half of the year by altering jet stream patterns and atmospheric instability, the elevated year-to-date pace keeps the market heavily favoring totals above 1,250. Traders are monitoring upcoming SPC monthly updates and any shifts in forecast model consensus on El Niño strength, as further suppression could narrow the path to lower bins but appears unlikely to drop below recent climatological ranges given current momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$81,998End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions intensifying across the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a historic peak this fall and winter, represent the dominant factor shaping 2026 U.S. tornado probabilities. Official Storm Prediction Center data show a preliminary total of 1,350 tornadoes through mid-August, driven by an active spring and summer with notable outbreaks and record counts in states like Illinois. While El Niño typically reduces severe weather frequency and intensity in the latter half of the year by altering jet stream patterns and atmospheric instability, the elevated year-to-date pace keeps the market heavily favoring totals above 1,250. Traders are monitoring upcoming SPC monthly updates and any shifts in forecast model consensus on El Niño strength, as further suppression could narrow the path to lower bins but appears unlikely to drop below recent climatological ranges given current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions