SpaceX’s accelerating Starship V3 test campaign, featuring repeated Super Heavy booster tower catches, an intact Ship heat-shield recovery after reentry, and a successful orbital refueling demonstration, forms the core driver behind the 76% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Multiple 2026 flights have validated Raptor 3 engine performance and rapid turnaround hardware at scale, with Elon Musk targeting the first Ship reflight by year-end or early 2027. These milestones, achieved on a cadence far exceeding prior versions, position the fully reusable architecture as operationally credible within the next 18 months while leaving modest room for schedule slips on ship catch and refurbishment cycles.