Tesla’s ongoing allocation of all Cybercab production units to its internal robotaxi fleet, rather than retail channels, underpins the strong market consensus against a 2026 customer sale at or below $30,000. Pilot production began in February 2026 and volume manufacturing followed in April at Gigafactory Texas, with hundreds of units observed, yet these vehicles support employee and public rides in Austin and select cities using existing Full Self-Driving software. The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to advance unsupervised robotaxi operations and service availability but shows no signs of opening consumer orders or deliveries by year-end. Traders weigh Musk’s repeated timeline optimism and the “agonizingly slow” early ramp against the strict resolution criteria requiring verified public retail sales.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$51,809 Vol.
$51,809 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$51,809 Vol.
$51,809 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s ongoing allocation of all Cybercab production units to its internal robotaxi fleet, rather than retail channels, underpins the strong market consensus against a 2026 customer sale at or below $30,000. Pilot production began in February 2026 and volume manufacturing followed in April at Gigafactory Texas, with hundreds of units observed, yet these vehicles support employee and public rides in Austin and select cities using existing Full Self-Driving software. The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to advance unsupervised robotaxi operations and service availability but shows no signs of opening consumer orders or deliveries by year-end. Traders weigh Musk’s repeated timeline optimism and the “agonizingly slow” early ramp against the strict resolution criteria requiring verified public retail sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$51,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s ongoing allocation of all Cybercab production units to its internal robotaxi fleet, rather than retail channels, underpins the strong market consensus against a 2026 customer sale at or below $30,000. Pilot production began in February 2026 and volume manufacturing followed in April at Gigafactory Texas, with hundreds of units observed, yet these vehicles support employee and public rides in Austin and select cities using existing Full Self-Driving software. The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to advance unsupervised robotaxi operations and service availability but shows no signs of opening consumer orders or deliveries by year-end. Traders weigh Musk’s repeated timeline optimism and the “agonizingly slow” early ramp against the strict resolution criteria requiring verified public retail sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$51,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s ongoing allocation of all Cybercab production units to its internal robotaxi fleet, rather than retail channels, underpins the strong market consensus against a 2026 customer sale at or below $30,000. Pilot production began in February 2026 and volume manufacturing followed in April at Gigafactory Texas, with hundreds of units observed, yet these vehicles support employee and public rides in Austin and select cities using existing Full Self-Driving software. The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to advance unsupervised robotaxi operations and service availability but shows no signs of opening consumer orders or deliveries by year-end. Traders weigh Musk’s repeated timeline optimism and the “agonizingly slow” early ramp against the strict resolution criteria requiring verified public retail sales.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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