xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model remaining in training on the expanded Colossus supercluster despite earlier targets for Q1 and Q2 2026 slipping. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and announced progress on a 2-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 variant in August, positioning these as competitive interim steps ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion parameter MoE architecture planned for Grok 5. Musk has linked the flagship to AGI-level ambitions, but repeated timeline shifts reflect the demands of post-training evaluation, scaling on gigawatt-class compute, and competition from models like Claude and GPT variants. Traders watch for any official confirmation of completion or public benchmarks that could clarify a 2026 launch window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
39%
November 30
49%
December 31
68%
$6,585 Vol.
August 31
$3,006 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$345 Vol.
39%
November 30
$0 Vol.
49%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model remaining in training on the expanded Colossus supercluster despite earlier targets for Q1 and Q2 2026 slipping. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and announced progress on a 2-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 variant in August, positioning these as competitive interim steps ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion parameter MoE architecture planned for Grok 5. Musk has linked the flagship to AGI-level ambitions, but repeated timeline shifts reflect the demands of post-training evaluation, scaling on gigawatt-class compute, and competition from models like Claude and GPT variants. Traders watch for any official confirmation of completion or public benchmarks that could clarify a 2026 launch window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$6,585End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model remaining in training on the expanded Colossus supercluster despite earlier targets for Q1 and Q2 2026 slipping. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and announced progress on a 2-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 variant in August, positioning these as competitive interim steps ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion parameter MoE architecture planned for Grok 5. Musk has linked the flagship to AGI-level ambitions, but repeated timeline shifts reflect the demands of post-training evaluation, scaling on gigawatt-class compute, and competition from models like Claude and GPT variants. Traders watch for any official confirmation of completion or public benchmarks that could clarify a 2026 launch window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,585End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model remaining in training on the expanded Colossus supercluster despite earlier targets for Q1 and Q2 2026 slipping. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and announced progress on a 2-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 variant in August, positioning these as competitive interim steps ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion parameter MoE architecture planned for Grok 5. Musk has linked the flagship to AGI-level ambitions, but repeated timeline shifts reflect the demands of post-training evaluation, scaling on gigawatt-class compute, and competition from models like Claude and GPT variants. Traders watch for any official confirmation of completion or public benchmarks that could clarify a 2026 launch window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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